Syrian Civil War Ends After 13 Years, But Sparks Still Alive [AK Radio]

Religious Conflict Persists in Syria
Russia Blocks Gas Pipeline Connection Between Europe and Middle East
Possibility of Renewed Intervention in Syrian Civil War Increases

On the 8th, Syrian rebel forces seized control of the capital Damascus, bringing an end to the Syrian civil war that had lasted for 13 years since 2011. The Bashar al-Assad regime, which had maintained hereditary and iron-fisted rule for 53 years, also collapsed, and President al-Assad and his family fled to Russia.

The most notable aspect is the rebels' swift victory. The Syrian rebels subdued government forces just 11 days after launching their counteroffensive. The social reform movement that began with the Arab Spring in 2010 spread throughout the Middle East, and large-scale anti-government protests erupted in Syria in 2011. The dominant analysis is that the Ukraine war played a decisive role in ending the civil war, which had remained unresolved for 13 years, in less than two weeks.

Military experts cite the cessation of Russian support as the key reason for the collapse of the Assad regime. Until now, the Assad regime had maintained superiority in battles against the rebels with the support of Russian forces. In particular, Russian air support was crucial. Although Syria is an oil-producing country, most of its refining facilities were destroyed during the civil war, making it impossible to produce aviation fuel. As a result, neither the government forces nor the rebels could operate a single fighter jet or transport aircraft, but Russia compensated for this through aerial support.

On the 8th (local time), Syrian rebels who defeated the Syrian government forces and entered the capital Damascus. AP·Yonhap News

However, as the Ukraine war prolonged, the situation changed rapidly. Russia, focusing all efforts on occupying Ukrainian territory ahead of the Trump administration's inauguration, redeployed a significant portion of the forces stationed in Syria to the eastern front of Ukraine. With Russian close air support effectively halted, the Syrian government forces could not overcome their numerical inferiority. Food shortages caused by the prolonged civil war and the overall weakening of Russian support led to desertions among government troops. The government forces, which numbered 350,000 at the time of the 2020 ceasefire, had dwindled to 170,000 by the time of their final defeat. With more than half of the troops deserting, defeat was inevitable.

The collapse of the Assad regime is also deeply connected to Syria's complex religious conflicts. The Assad family belongs to the Alawite sect, a minority sect that split from Shia Islam. The Alawites were considered heretics by both Sunni and Shia Muslims during the medieval period and now remain only in Syria, the border area with Iraq, and parts of eastern T?rkiye.

Hafez al-Assad seized power in a 1970 coup and consolidated rule for over 50 years by rallying Alawite officers. During the French colonial period, many Alawites enlisted in the French army, and after Syria's independence, they became a major force within the military. The long-term rule of the minority Alawite sect in a Sunni-majority Syria was a constant source of conflict.

Current President Bashar al-Assad was regarded as a reform-minded leader with foreign study experience. After inheriting power from his father, he promoted secular policies emphasizing sectarian harmony. He sought to guarantee religious freedom for each sect and build a political system united by various religions. However, after the large-scale anti-government protests following the Arab Spring in 2011, he suppressed them with force and ultimately took the path of a dictator.

On the 14th (local time), Russian military armored vehicles withdrew from Damascus and moved to the Khmeimim Air Base, a military base leased by Russia from Syria. Photo by Reuters and Yonhap News.

The main force of the victorious rebels this time is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). HTS is an organization advocating Sunni Islamic fundamentalism and has undergone a complex evolution. It initially started as the Syrian branch of ISIS but severed ties when ISIS became extreme. It then joined al-Qaeda before pursuing an independent path from 2016 onward.

HTS leader Muhammad al-Julani (43) is the son of an Iraqi economist. He joined the anti-American movement when the Iraq War broke out in 2003 while studying media at Damascus University and later operated within an al-Qaeda branch. Muhammad al-Bashir (41), elected as interim government prime minister, is an electrical engineer who worked at a Syrian gas plant and has handled administration within the rebel organization.

International reactions to the end of the Syrian civil war are mixed. T?rkiye, the largest supporter of the rebels, is seen as having gained the upper hand. T?rkiye hosts over 4 million Syrian refugees, making the end of the civil war an urgent issue. Through refugee camps in the northwestern border region of Syria, T?rkiye has supplied food and weapons to the rebels.

Reuters Yonhap News

On the other hand, Russia faces the risk of losing its military bases and economic interests in Syria. The European gas pipeline issue is particularly serious. Since the 2014 Crimea crisis, Europe has sought to reduce dependence on Russian natural gas by pursuing pipeline connections with Middle Eastern countries. Syria is a key transit point for pipelines linking Europe and the Middle East, and since 2009, there have been discussions about constructing a pipeline connecting Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and T?rkiye.

Russia deeply involved itself in the Syrian civil war to protect the market that accounts for 75% of its gas exports to Europe. The Assad regime pursued policies aligned with Russian interests, but now the likelihood of a pro-Western government taking power has increased. This could directly impact Russia's energy exports.

There is great uncertainty about what policies Syria's new government will implement and how Russia and T?rkiye will act going forward. Particularly, radical factions still exist within HTS, and conflicts with the Alawites remain challenges to be resolved. However, the fact that hope has emerged for the 6 million refugees to return home is seen as a meaningful change. The international community's attention is focused on whether the peace that has come after 13 years can be sustained.

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