Cherry Blossoms and Roses Presidential Race Brewing... Ruling and Opposition Candidates 'Stretching Out'

'Yoon Impeachment' Constitutional Court Acceptance Could Trigger Early Presidential Election
As Early as April Next Year, Possibly July-August at the Latest
Lee Jae-myung Says 'The Sooner, The Better', Ruling Party Says More Time Needed

With the impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk-yeol passing the National Assembly, the ball has now moved to the Constitutional Court (Constitutional Tribunal). Depending on the Constitutional Court's ruling, the possibility of an 'early presidential election' may become a reality. If an early election is held, there is keen interest in when it might take place.

According to the Constitutional Court Act, the court must deliver a verdict within 180 days of receiving the case. If the impeachment motion is upheld, the president will be removed from office, and a presidential election must be held within 60 days. If the impeachment motion is dismissed or rejected by the court, the presidential election will proceed as scheduled in 2027. In the past, the impeachment trials of former Presidents Roh Moo-hyun and Park Geun-hye were concluded in 63 days and 91 days, respectively. If the impeachment motion is upheld, an early presidential election is expected to be held in April 2025, or at the latest in July or August.

Participants are shouting slogans at a rally urging impeachment held on the 14th in front of the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul, where the impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk-yeol was voted on. Photo by Heo Young-han

Lee Jae-myung Rushes Forward, Anti-Lee Factions Stir

The most competitive candidate currently in the opposition camp is Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea. Having narrowly lost to President Yoon by 0.73 percentage points in the last presidential election, he solidified his position within the party through his 're-election as party leader.' He has consistently maintained the lead in polls measuring suitability for the next presidential candidate.

However, Lee faces 'judicial risks.' He is involved in five trials, and it would be advantageous for him if the Constitutional Court's ruling comes before any final verdict in these cases. The cases for which first-instance rulings have already been made?related to the Public Official Election Act and perjury inducement?are expected to reach final verdicts around May, based on the court's principle of '6 months (first trial) - 3 months (appeal) - 3 months (final trial).' If the Constitutional Court decides to remove President Yoon before then, Lee could run as a presidential candidate.

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is attending the Emergency Economic Inspection Meeting held at the National Assembly on the 11th. Photo by Kim Hyun-min

Meanwhile, movements among potential rivals within the party to challenge Lee have also been detected. Leading figures of the anti-Lee faction, known as the 'New Three Kims,' include Gyeonggi Province Governor Kim Dong-yeon, former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum, and former Gyeongnam Province Governor Kim Kyung-soo, who have shown their presence around the time of the emergency martial law situation. Governor Kim Dong-yeon staged a solo protest during the impeachment crisis. Former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum attended impeachment rallies in Daegu, his 'political hometown.' Former Governor Kim Kyung-soo paid visits to former President Moon Jae-in and National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik.

Ruling Party in Candidate Search Phase... Lee Jun-seok Also Shows Willingness to Run

In the ruling camp, candidates such as Han Dong-hoon, leader of the People Power Party, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo, and Assemblyman Ahn Cheol-soo are being mentioned. However, if Han resigns from his leadership position due to demonstrated leadership limitations, his chances of running for president are expected to significantly decrease.

Handonghun, the leader of the People Power Party, is attending the Supreme Council meeting held at the National Assembly on the 9th. Photo by Kim Hyunmin

Even after the impeachment motion's passage, the People Power Party remains divided between supporters and opponents, making internal consolidation a top priority. In fact, there is a possibility that the Constitutional Court's ruling could be somewhat delayed. Since investigations into President Yoon on charges of rebellion and the appointment of a special prosecutor are underway simultaneously, any charges uncovered during the investigation may also be reviewed. Additionally, the current six-member Constitutional Court, with three vacancies, could also contribute to delays in the trial.

Lee Jun-seok, a reformist party assemblyman who left the People Power Party after clashing with President Yoon during the last presidential election period while serving as party leader, is also mentioned as a competitive candidate. Born on March 31, 1985, he has expressed his intention to run if the election date is set after April.