Yoo Si-min "Impeachment Passed 51 to 49" ... Exactly Matching the Vote Result

Impeachment Political Crisis Predicted in Book Published Last June

With the impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk-yeol passing with 204 votes in favor and 85 against, the remarks of former Roh Moo-hyun Foundation Director Yoo Si-min, who accurately predicted the outcome, are being revisited.

Former Chairman of the Roh Moo-hyun Foundation, Yoo Si-min. Photo by Huh Young-han younghan@

On the 13th, a day before the second impeachment vote, Yoo appeared on the podcast 'Maebul Show' and predicted, "I think it will pass by 51 to 49." He said, "Last time (the first vote), I said it would be rejected by 51 to 49, and now the vote is just one day away. Tomorrow, I think it will pass by 51 to 49." He added, "There is not a single media outlet supporting Yoon Suk-yeol now because advertisers say they would be ruined if they side with the president," and said, "From now on, they will criticize Yoon Suk-yeol. That’s why he will be impeached." Regarding the situation after the impeachment, he added, "From now on, there will be continuous focused attacks on Lee Jae-myung. It is necessary to keep that in mind."

He also anticipated the impeachment political situation. In his book published in June, A Very Personal Thought on His Fate (Saenggakui Gil), he predicted, "If luck does not sufficiently follow, we will enter a dead-end alley called the impeachment political situation," and wrote, "Yoon Suk-yeol is not someone who will resign on his own. He will engage in a political civil war against the opposition party and navigate the sea of public sentiment where waves of impeachment surge."

He also said, "To impeach Yoon Suk-yeol, all opposition party lawmakers must unite, and a considerable number of ruling party lawmakers must join. It does not need to be as many as during Park Geun-hye’s impeachment, but it must exceed ten." Of the 204 votes in favor of the impeachment motion, excluding 192 opposition lawmakers, it appears that 12 votes in favor came from the People Power Party, which maintained a 'rejection party line.' This also aligns with Yoo’s analysis. He explained, "If public sentiment overwhelmingly demands impeachment, some ruling party lawmakers will join the impeachment ranks regardless of whether they leave the party or not. Ambitious politicians aiming for the next presidential election will coldly draw the line if they can gain political benefits by throwing out an unpopular president."

Two years ago, ahead of the presidential election, Yoo also voiced concerns about Yoon Suk-yeol, then the People Power Party’s presidential candidate, saying, "I worry that candidate Yoon will become a tyrant," and "If candidate Yoon becomes president, he will destroy the constitution."