Possible as early as April next year, at the latest May-June
Verdict must be delivered within 180 days after impeachment bill passes
Frequent changes in Constitutional Court justices may delay trial
If impeachment is dismissed, normal presidential election to be held in 2027
With the impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk-yeol passing the National Assembly plenary session after a re-vote on the 14th, the possibility of an 'early presidential election' is increasing. The timing of the election is expected to be determined depending on how soon the Constitutional Court delivers its final ruling on the impeachment. Currently, it is anticipated that the election could be held as early as April next year, or at the latest around May to June.
60 days or 90 days from National Assembly resolution to ruling?
According to the Constitutional Court Act, the Constitutional Court must deliver a ruling within 180 days after receiving the case. If the impeachment is upheld, the president is dismissed, and a presidential election must be held within 60 days. Previously, it took 63 days from the National Assembly resolution to ruling for former President Roh Moo-hyun’s impeachment trial, and 92 days for former President Park Geun-hye’s.
If the Constitutional Court reaches a conclusion on the impeachment trial within two months, as in former President Roh’s case, the presidential election could be held around mid-April, 120 days from now (60 days for the court’s review and up to 60 days for election preparations).
However, if the review period extends to about three months, as it did during former President Park’s case, the election could be held around May to June next year.
Additionally, if the court uses the full 180-day review period and delivers its ruling on June 11 next year, the election could possibly take place around July to August.
Variables that could delay the Constitutional Court’s review?
In particular, the personnel hearing process for three Constitutional Court justice candidates (Jo Han-chang, Jung Kye-seon, Ma Eun-hyuk) is underway, and the terms of justices Moon Hyung-bae and Lee Mi-seon expire on April 18 next year, which could be variables. Frequent changes in justices may cause delays in the review process. However, there are expectations inside and outside the court that a conclusion could be reached before the term expiration date.
Another variable is that if President Yoon is indicted on charges of rebellion or abuse of authority, the impeachment trial could be suspended at the discretion of the court panel. Article 51 of the Constitutional Court Act stipulates that "if a criminal trial is underway for the same reasons as the impeachment trial request, the court panel may suspend the trial procedure."
Meanwhile, if the impeachment is dismissed or rejected, an early presidential election will not be held, and the next election will proceed normally in 2027.
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