US Strategic International Studies Institute Korea Chair
"North Korea, China, Russia Threat... Diplomatic Fallout"
Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the U.S. think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), warned that South Korean democracy has fallen into uncertainty amid President Yoon Suk-yeol's declaration of martial law.
On the 7th (local time), according to major foreign media, Chair Cha pointed out that President Yoon's declaration of martial law "has caused long-term political instability in South Korea at the most inappropriate time when threats from China, North Korea, and Russia are escalating."
In an op-ed apparently written before the failed impeachment vote in the South Korean National Assembly the previous day, he emphasized, "The only identifiable outcome at this point is the resignation of the incumbent president," while warning that "depending on the timing and process, South Korea, the United States, and the entire world could bear significant economic and political costs."
He particularly expressed concern, saying, "It is unclear how this situation will end, but a nightmare scenario is the military returning to the streets," and added, "President Yoon's anger and frustration could lead to a second declaration of martial law amid political chaos." Chair Cha predicted that if such a scenario materializes, it would have dire implications for South Korean democracy, with the military being pressured to disobey the supreme commander’s orders, and the Korean stock market and economy plummeting.
He also stated that North Korea could take advantage of the turmoil to assert new maritime boundaries in the West Sea and engage in provocations, and that there would be aftershocks in diplomatic relations with the United States. Chair Cha warned, "The U.S. has so far maintained a cautious stance, not taking sides and focusing on resolving the crisis through the rule of law and constitutional procedures, but a second declaration of martial law could compel Washington to intervene against the South Korean president."
Chair Cha pointed out, "It is ironic that President Yoon has made democratic values and freedom the theme of South Korea’s role in the world during his administration. He may be remembered domestically for the most undemocratic actions." He added, "While his resignation from leadership is almost certain, I only hope that democracy, security, national prosperity, and all those who have worked for them will not be sacrificed in the process."
Considered one of the leading U.S. experts on the Korean Peninsula, Chair Cha served as the U.S. Deputy Representative for the Six-Party Talks on North Korea’s nuclear program at the White House National Security Council (NSC) during the George W. Bush administration.
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