61,000 Births in Q3, Largest Increase in 12 Years

The total fertility rate in the third quarter of this year rebounded for the first time in over eight years. It appears that the increase in marriages following the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a rise in births. If this trend continues, the annual number of births is expected to increase for the first time in nine years.

According to Statistics Korea's "September Population Trends" released on the 28th, the number of births in the third quarter of this year was 61,288, an increase of 4,523 (8.0%) compared to the same period last year. This marks the second consecutive quarter of growth following an increase of 691 in the second quarter. The increase is the steepest in 12 years since the fourth quarter of 2012, when births rose by 5,102. Consequently, the total fertility rate rose by 0.05 to 0.76 compared to the previous year.

If the current trend continues into the fourth quarter, the total fertility rate and the annual number of births this year could turn upward for the first time in nine years. The cumulative total fertility rate up to September was 0.74, exceeding the 0.68 estimated for this year in last year's future population projections by Statistics Korea. The cumulative number of births as of September also increased to 178,600 compared to the same period last year.

The highest fertility rate was observed among women in their early 30s. The birth rate by age group in the third quarter (number of births per 1,000 women in the age group) for ages 25?29 was 20.8, a decrease of 0.4 compared to the same period last year. In contrast, for ages 30?34, it was 71, an increase of 6.6. Considering that the cohort born between 1991 and 1995, classified as early 30s, exceeds 700,000 annually, there is a possibility that the fertility rate rebound will continue through next year.

The number of births in September was 20,590, an increase of 1,884 (10.1%) compared to one year earlier. This marks the third consecutive month of growth since July this year. In terms of the number of births, this is the largest increase since March 2015 (2,308 births), and in terms of growth rate, the largest since January 2011 (10.8%).

The main reason for the increase in births is the rise in marriages. The number of marriages sharply declined during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020?2021 but began to increase from August 2022. Marriages in the third quarter totaled 51,706, an increase of 10,003 (24%) compared to last year. This is the highest growth rate since related statistics began in 1981. Marriages in September also rose by 2,428 (18.8%) to 15,368 compared to the previous year.

Lim Young-il, head of the Population Trends Division at Statistics Korea, said, "Marriages have increased somewhat faster than expected, leading to a quicker rise in fertility rates than projected," adding, "If the current level is maintained through the fourth quarter, the total fertility rate could exceed 0.72." However, he also noted, "Although the total fertility rate has rebounded, it remains very low compared to other countries."