Russia and Ukraine's Reasons for 'Tripartite Division' Demand... Trump Ceasefire Plan Complications [AK Radio]

Russia's 2045 Mid-to-Long-Term Ukraine Partition Plan
Likely Korean Peninsula-Style Division and Long-Term Ceasefire

Expectations are growing that the Russia-Ukraine war will move toward a ceasefire. In particular, with the Trump administration set to take office in January 2025, ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are expected to accelerate. After three years since the outbreak of the war, both sides have reached a peak in war fatigue, and it is reported that Russia is already devising concrete plans for territorial division after the end of the war.

Recently, the Kyiv Post reported that the Russian Ministry of Defense is considering a plan to dismantle Ukrainian territory into three zones by 2045. According to this plan, Russia would annex the currently occupied Ukrainian regions into its own territory, establish a pro-Russian puppet government in Kyiv and the central region, and have European countries such as Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania divide and occupy the western Lviv region. This is interpreted as an intention to completely dismantle the state of Ukraine.

In this regard, President Putin has expressed willingness to negotiate a ceasefire with President-elect Trump. However, he set conditions including Ukraine’s abandonment of NATO membership and the non-negotiable retention of territories currently occupied by Russia. Russia has strongly opposed Ukraine’s NATO membership since the Soviet era. In particular, the Sevastopol naval base in Crimea holds great strategic importance as the only warm-water port of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

AFP Yonhap News

According to Russia’s claim, just before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990, the United States and NATO promised not to include Ukraine in NATO’s defense line. However, the U.S. and NATO deny the existence of such an agreement. In 2014, as Ukraine prepared to join NATO, it demanded the withdrawal of the Russian Black Sea Fleet stationed in Sevastopol, Crimea, which led to Russia’s invasion of Crimea.

The ceasefire plan envisioned by the second Trump administration centers on postponing Ukraine’s NATO membership for more than 20 years and recognizing Russia’s effective control over the territories it currently occupies. In exchange, a fence similar to the Korean Peninsula’s armistice line would be installed along the current border, and European Union forces would be deployed to deter further Russian invasions. Although this is a softened version compared to Russia’s proposal to completely dismantle Ukraine, it still demands significant concessions from Ukraine.

Recently, the United States and the United Kingdom have expanded missile support to Ukraine and allowed attacks on Russian mainland, strengthening military aid. Previously, missile range was limited due to concerns over escalation, but now those restrictions have been completely lifted. However, this is interpreted as a measure to prevent a short-term decisive battle by Russia before the Trump administration takes office. In fact, the U.S. does not want further escalation due to fatigue from the prolonged three-year war.

Reuters Yonhap News

Meanwhile, the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia has also drawn attention. Recent reports indicate that North Korean officers suffered casualties from British-made Storm Shadow missile attacks, and some media outlets reported that about 500 North Korean soldiers died in the bombings. North Korea is dispatching elite troops whose loyalty to the regime has been verified, but it is known that the tactics of the North Korean army, specialized in mountain warfare, have not been very effective on the flat battlefields of Ukraine.

The reason North Korea is sending its best troops is analyzed to be concerns over the risk of soldiers isolated from the outside world defecting from the regime. However, paradoxically, if the elite troops experience the outside world and return, there is a possibility they may question the North Korean regime. Especially if a large-scale deployment of around 100,000 troops occurs, surviving soldiers returning home could become a new threat to the North Korean regime.

Experts believe that the Ukraine war is likely to be settled by a ceasefire similar to the Korean War. However, while the Korean Peninsula armistice line is 250 km long, the Ukraine front line stretches about 1,200 km, making its management a major challenge. From the perspective of the U.S. and NATO, they want to prevent Ukraine from completely collapsing and avoid a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO member countries.

Yonhap News

This war is evaluated as having completely changed the international community’s perception that “there will be no large-scale conventional wars” since the end of the Cold War. Especially as the U.S. strengthens its isolationist stance, concerns are raised that the military invasion by a major power leading to territorial occupation could set a precedent. In fact, Russia, ranked 11th in the world economy, has occupied significant territory after three years of war, drawing attention to how this might influence China, the world’s second-largest economy, in its intention to unify Taiwan.

As a result, the ceasefire in the Ukraine war is expected to mark the starting point of a new international order. Countries are anticipated to increase their military capabilities under the recognition that war is no longer a distant issue. In particular, Northeast Asia, where North Korea has joined the conflict by deploying troops to Russia, is expected to become a powder keg of the world with heightened risks.

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