Mainichi & Social Research Center Nationwide Opinion Poll
Significant Rise in Opposition Party Support Including Gungmin Minjudang
On the 25th, a public opinion poll revealed that the approval rating of the second Ishiba Shigeru Japanese Cabinet, launched on the 11th in a 'minority ruling party' system for the first time in 30 years, has plummeted to the 30% range. In Japan, a cabinet approval rating falling below 30% is considered a 'resignation crisis.'
According to the nationwide poll (targeting 1,919 people aged 18 and over) conducted by Mainichi Shimbun and the Social Research Center on the 23rd and 24th and announced on the same day, the approval rating of the Ishiba Cabinet recorded 31%, a 15 percentage point drop from last month's survey (46%). The percentage of people who do not support the Ishiba Cabinet rose by 13 percentage points to 50% compared to the previous survey.
Mainichi reported that although the survey methods may differ, "this is the first time since the 2008 Aso Taro Cabinet that the proportion of people not supporting the cabinet exceeded the approval rating in the month following its launch." Earlier, after failing to secure a majority in the House of Representatives election on the 27th of last month, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito formed a 'cohabitation government' by cooperating on policies with the third opposition party, the Democratic Party for the People.
The biggest reason given by respondents who do not support the Ishiba Cabinet was "because they cannot expect the prime minister's leadership," accounting for 47%. Among those who supported the Ishiba Cabinet, the largest reason was also "because there are no other good people or parties," making up 41%. In last month's survey, 39% of respondents cited "expectation of the prime minister's leadership" as their reason for supporting the Ishiba Cabinet, but this figure dropped significantly to 26% this time.
Amid worsening public opinion toward the ruling party, opposition parties showed a sharp rise in support. In particular, in this survey, the support rate for the Democratic Party for the People, which has advocated expanding net income through tax cuts and reductions, rose significantly from 3% to 13%. The support rate for the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, also slightly increased from 10% to 12%. The Liberal Democratic Party's support rate fell from 29% to 21%.
Facing a 'minority ruling party' political situation that lays a thorny path for future national governance, Prime Minister Ishiba has taken on the challenge of reversing the approval rating decline to avoid becoming a 'plant prime minister.' Local media speculate that if the Ishiba Cabinet's approval rating falls to the 20% range, there could be moves within the Liberal Democratic Party to 'push Ishiba out' ahead of the House of Councillors election and Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election scheduled for July next year.
Meanwhile, Nagashima Akihisa, a close aide to Prime Minister Ishiba and security affairs advisor, met with reporters after returning from a visit to the United States the previous day and stated that he conveyed intentions to strengthen cooperation to the team of President-elect Donald Trump. He said, "The importance of cooperation is well recognized by President-elect Trump and related parties," adding, "Due to the parliamentary schedule next year, it is difficult to estimate the timing of Prime Minister Ishiba's visit to the U.S., but it would be good to prepare mutually and meet at an appropriate time."
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