Olive Oil Prices Soared Due to Drought and Wildfires
Price Reduction Expected from Next Year
Good Harvest Anticipated in Spain, the Largest Producer
Due to a good harvest in Spain, the world's largest olive producer, there is growing anticipation that olive oil prices will drop to less than half starting from January next year. Last winter, olive oil experienced a sharp price increase due to severe production declines caused by droughts and wildfires in Southern Europe. Although the timing of price stabilization will vary by country, the prevailing forecast is that prices worldwide will fall compared to this year once winter passes.
Deoleo, a Spanish company and the world's largest olive oil producer, recently stated via Euronews that olive oil prices are expected to fall to less than half of current levels during the winter months from November this year to January next year. This optimism is driven by a significant increase in olive harvests across Southern Europe, including Spain, Greece, and T?rkiye, compared to the previous year, raising expectations for supply recovery.
Olive oil prices have shown extreme volatility over the past five years due to COVID-19 and climate change-induced weather anomalies. The international monthly average price of olive oil traded between $3,000 and $4,000 per ton (approximately 4.19 to 5.59 million KRW) until the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2019, then sharply dropped to $1,313.41 in December 2020. Following poor harvests caused by weather anomalies and increased demand, prices surged, surpassing $5,000 in January last year at $5,893.30 and exceeding $9,000 in September at $9,364.94.
This year, the upward trend continued, reaching an all-time high of $10,281.37 in January. The sharp decline in olive production due to severe droughts and wildfires in Spain and Greece, combined with a significant drop in Ukrainian sunflower oil supply following the outbreak of the Ukraine war, contributed to a substantial rise in overall edible oil prices.
However, the recent trend is changing. According to CNBC, price declines have already begun in Spain, which accounts for 40% of global olive production. Agricultural market research firm Expana reported that the price of extra virgin olive oil from Andalusia, Spain, dropped 19% last month to 6 euros (approximately 8,843 KRW) per kilogram. Compared to January, when prices reached a record high of 9.2 euros, prices have fallen by more than 35%.
Kyle Holland, senior researcher in the edible oil sector at Expana, said, "Most of the industry expects a bearish trend in olive oil prices. In Spain, olive oil production for the 2024?2025 season is expected to reach 1.3 million tons, nearly double the 670,000 to 680,000 tons produced in the 2022?2023 season."
However, the extent and timing of price declines may vary depending on each country's situation. A Deoleo representative stated, "Due to soaring olive oil prices over the past two years, consumption has noticeably decreased while production has increased, so prices are expected to fall in most countries. However, the magnitude and speed of price declines may differ depending on each country's inventory levels, the proportion of olive oil in total edible oil consumption, and consumption volumes."
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
![$29 Monthly Subscription AI Plant Appliance... US Startup Challenges LG [CES 2026]](https://cwcontent.asiae.co.kr/asiaresize/319/2026010819285284553_1767868133.png)
