China October Retail Sales Up 4.8%... Effect of Economic Stimulus Measures?

Due to the effects of China's economic stimulus measures, retail sales in October increased by 4.8% compared to last year, surpassing market expectations.

On the 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics of China announced that retail sales in October reached 4.5396 trillion yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year.

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This figure significantly exceeded the 3.8% forecast by both Reuters and Bloomberg. It also showed a much larger increase than the previous month of September (3.2%).

China's economic growth rate for the third quarter of this year was only 4.6%. The cumulative growth rate from the first to the third quarter remained at 4.8%, leading to expectations that achieving the economic growth target of around 5% will be difficult. In response, authorities have implemented various stimulus measures since the end of September, including interest rate cuts and support for the real estate and stock markets.

Industrial production in October rose by 5.3%. This was below Reuters' forecast of 5.6% and also lower than the previous month (5.4%).

Fixed asset investment from January to October, which reflects changes in capital investment in factories, roads, power grids, and real estate excluding rural areas, increased by 3.4% year-on-year. This is the same as the January to September result (3.4%) and similar to Reuters' (3.5%) and Bloomberg's (3.4%) forecasts. However, real estate development investment during the same period decreased by 10.3%, indicating that the real estate market downturn continues.

The urban surveyed unemployment rate from January to October this year was 5.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year.

The National Bureau of Statistics stated, "In October, the implementation of existing policies accelerated and the introduction of incremental policies steadily improved the operation of the national economy. Major indicators rebounded significantly and positive factors accumulated." However, it added, "The external environment has become more complex and severe, domestic effective demand remains weak, and it is necessary to keep in mind the need to solidify the foundation for sustained economic recovery."