Lee Jae-myung, D-Day for First Trial of Judicial Risk... What Are the Consequences of the Verdict?

Shaking the '2nd Term System' with Sentences Over 1 Million Won
Strengthening Momentum for Yoon's Impeachment with Acquittal or Lesser Sentences

The first verdict in the 'judicial risk' case involving Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, will be announced on the 15th. If a heavy sentence is handed down, it is expected to cause significant repercussions in the political landscape, including moral damage and restrictions on eligibility for election. Conversely, if a not guilty verdict is delivered, it would mean overcoming the most critical first hurdle of the judicial risk. It is also viewed as strengthening the opposition's momentum for outside-the-parliament protests against the ruling party.

According to political and legal circles, the Seoul Central District Court Criminal Division 34 (Chief Judge Han Sung-jin) will hold the first trial sentencing hearing for Lee’s violation of the Public Official Election Act at 2:30 p.m. on the same day. Currently, Lee is facing four charges: violation of the Public Official Election Act, witness tampering, allegations of corruption related to the Daejang-dong development, and illegal remittances to North Korea. The first trial for the Public Official Election Act case will conclude two years and two months after Lee was indicted without detention in September 2022.

If Lee is sentenced to a fine exceeding 1 million won in the first verdict, it is expected that the opposition’s momentum to push for the impeachment of President Yoon Seok-youl will immediately decrease. Even if the final verdict from the Supreme Court remains pending, it is widely believed that Lee’s active role at the forefront of the 'Lee Jae-myung 2.0 system' could be significantly restricted. This is because it would be difficult to focus on various allegations surrounding First Lady Kim Keon-hee while the moral shortcomings of the leader of the main opposition party are acknowledged. The ruling party is likely to emphasize the 'Lee Jae-myung criminal' frame. Former National Assembly Secretary-General Yoon In-tae predicted in a CBS radio interview that "the vigorous momentum, like during the so-called Gaeddal (Daughters of Reform) nomination, might be somewhat dampened."

The Democratic Party’s finances will also be significantly affected. If a fine exceeding 1 million won is imposed, the party must return 43.4 billion won in election expenses reimbursed by the National Election Commission from the last presidential election. Internally, the activities of the anti-Lee faction (Bi-Lee-Pyeong faction) are also expected to resume. 'Opposition potential candidate' Kim Dong-yeon, Governor of Gyeonggi Province, has recently raised his voice mentioning President Yoon’s resignation, and it is interpreted that the Bi-Lee faction, including former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum and former Governor of Gyeongnam Kim Kyung-soo, could begin reorganizing the democratic forces.

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is attending the Supreme Council meeting held at the National Assembly on the 13th. Photo by Kim Hyun-min

On the other hand, if Lee receives a fine of 1 million won or less or a not guilty verdict in the first trial, his leadership is expected to become even stronger. In this case, even if illegal acts are acknowledged, he can retain his parliamentary seat and eligibility for election. Political commentator Park Sang-byeong observed, "If a fine below 1 million won is imposed, the moderate voters are unlikely to consider his criminality a major issue." There is also speculation in political circles that the Democratic Party leadership might officially push for President Yoon’s impeachment. Until now, the impeachment momentum has been driven mainly by individual lawmakers within the party, but the leadership could take the lead in this effort.

However, some warn that even if Lee avoids losing his eligibility for election by receiving a fine of 1 million won or less in the first trial, it is too early to be complacent. The first trial sentencing for the witness tampering case is scheduled for the 25th, and trials for the Daejang-dong development corruption allegations and illegal remittances to North Korea are also ongoing. Given that several trials with potentially significant repercussions are proceeding consecutively, it is necessary to monitor the situation over the long term.

Police are controlling the area around the Seoul Central District Court in Seocho-gu, Seoul, on the 15th, when the first trial sentencing hearing for Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, on charges of violating the Public Official Election Act is scheduled. Photo by Jo Yong-jun