[Interview] "Trump's Second Term, Low Possibility of Nuclear Talks with North Korea... South Korea's Defense Cost Increase Inevitable"

[Trump 2.0 US Expert Interview] ④
Two Experts on Korean Peninsula Issues
Scott Snyder, Director of Korea Economic Institute (KEI)
Andrew Yeo, Korea Chair at Brookings Institution

Donald Trump, the 47th President-elect of the United States, who will take office in January next year, is expected by American experts to maintain the policy of denuclearization of North Korea but is unlikely to directly negotiate with North Korea by pushing for a North Korea-U.S. summit while bypassing South Korea to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue. It is also anticipated that Trump will likely demand an increase in the cost of stationing U.S. troops in South Korea (defense cost-sharing), but there are also opportunities such as arms sales and expanded defense cooperation. Advice has been raised that a prompt meeting between the leaders of South Korea, Japan, and President-elect Trump is necessary to continue the trilateral cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, which accelerated under the Joe Biden administration, during Trump’s second term. In preparation for changes in foreign policy after the launch of Trump’s second term, Asia Economy interviewed two experts from Washington D.C. think tanks familiar with the Korean Peninsula issue on the 12th (local time) to hear their outlook and South Korea’s response strategies.

-The North Korean nuclear threat continues and North Korea-Russia military cooperation is strengthening. What is the likelihood of a North Korea-U.S. summit being re-pursued during Trump’s second term?

▲Scott Snyder, Director of the Korea Economic Institute (KEI)=The likelihood of a North Korea-U.S. summit taking place is low. There are lingering negative feelings from the failed Hanoi North Korea-U.S. summit in February 2019 and (North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un’s) negative sentiments. (At that time, Kim proposed dismantling the Yongbyon nuclear facility in exchange for lifting major sanctions on North Korea, but then-President Trump rejected the proposal.)

▲Andrew Yeo, Korea Chair at the Brookings Institution=It is unlikely that President-elect Trump will initiate negotiations first, but if Kim Jong-un extends a hand first to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula, Trump may accept it. The key factor is the personnel of the next administration. If hawkish mainstream Republican figures are appointed, the administration is likely to rely on the South Korea-U.S. alliance to pressure and sanction North Korea. Otherwise, the foreign policy may adopt a freer stance with less emphasis on cooperation with allies and partners. (President-elect Trump has officially nominated Congressman Mike Waltz as the next administration’s White House National Security Advisor and is reported to have nominated Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State. Both are hawks within the Republican Party who have called for a tough stance against adversaries such as China, Russia, and North Korea.)

-Is there a possibility that Trump’s second term will recognize North Korea as a nuclear-armed state?

▲Snyder=I do not believe the U.S. government will change its opposition to North Korea’s illegal nuclear program after its withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1993.

▲Yeo=President-elect Trump may practically recognize North Korea as a nuclear-armed state, but it is expected that the U.S. administration will maintain its consistent position of making North Korea’s denuclearization the ultimate policy goal.

-Due to the escalating North Korean nuclear threat, some in South Korea and the U.S. argue that South Korea should consider its own nuclear armament or the redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula. Do you think such discussions will take place during Trump’s second term?

▲Snyder=Yes. It is expected that this issue will be actively discussed between Trump’s second term and officials of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration.

▲Yeo=It is difficult to predict at this point. President-elect Trump is concerned about nuclear weapons, and there is currently no sign that he will allow the provision of tactical nuclear weapons or South Korea’s development of nuclear weapons.

-There are concerns that Trump’s second term will scrap the defense cost-sharing agreement reached in early October and demand renegotiation.

▲Yeo=There is a considerable possibility that Trump’s second term will demand an additional increase in South Korea’s defense cost-sharing. However, the Yoon administration may have prepared well for negotiations with counterarguments that South Korea is paying a fair share. The increase rate of defense cost-sharing during Trump’s second term may be higher than the originally negotiated 8.3% (compared to the previous year, based on 2026) under the Biden administration, but the U.S. may also provide other benefits through new deals such as arms sales and defense industry cooperation.

▲Snyder=Even after the recent South Korea-U.S. negotiation, the expansion of defense cost-sharing will remain a topic of discussion during Trump’s second term. However, I believe there are many ways for both sides to reach a mutually satisfactory negotiation outcome separate from the existing agreement.

-Will Trump’s second term demand a revision of the South Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (FTA)?

▲Yeo=Since the South Korea-U.S. FTA was revised just a few years ago during Trump’s first term, it is unlikely that a revision will be demanded early in the second term. However, tariff rates could be adjusted against South Korea. If Trump’s second term is not satisfied with resolving the trade deficit with South Korea, there is a possibility that renegotiation of the South Korea-U.S. FTA will be demanded in the latter half of the term.

▲Snyder=Since President-elect Trump is concerned about the merchandise trade deficit, South Korea may choose to purchase more goods from the U.S.

-President-elect Trump mentioned South Korea-U.S. shipbuilding cooperation in a call with President Yoon. What are the cooperation plans between the two countries?

▲Yeo=The U.S. lacks sufficient numbers of warships in the Indo-Pacific region but does not have the capacity to build warships as quickly as China. Therefore, the U.S. is considering relying on allies such as South Korea and Japan, which can produce high-quality warships, to narrow the gap with China. Recently, South Korea’s HD Hyundai and Hanwha Ocean signed contracts for repairing U.S. warships, and this cooperation can be further expanded.

▲Snyder=Cooperation is possible in U.S. ship maintenance, repair, and overhaul, management of U.S. ships by a single company at U.S. shipyards owned by Korean companies, and joint technology development in the shipbuilding sector.

-Will the trilateral cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, which was strengthened under the Biden administration, continue closely during Trump’s second term?

▲Snyder=Trump’s second term may decide to continue trilateral cooperation. I strongly recommend an early meeting between President-elect Trump and the leaders of South Korea and Japan to confirm the South Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral cooperation.

▲Yeo=The pace of trilateral cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan may not be as fast as under the Biden administration. However, Trump’s close aides have stated that both South Korea-Japan relations and the South Korea-U.S.-Japan alliance remain important. Trump’s second term will focus on long-term hegemonic competition with China and is concerned about North Korea’s missile and nuclear capabilities expansion, so trilateral cooperation is still expected to be useful.

-Amid the U.S.-China hegemonic competition, what strategy should South Korea adopt?

▲Yeo=South Korea should closely cooperate to strengthen economic ties with the U.S. while maintaining a certain level of economic exchange with China. Whether under the Biden or Trump administration, South Korea needs to maintain a consistent position.

▲Snyder=South Korea has emerged as an important technological cooperation partner for the U.S. and is also reducing its exposure to the Chinese market. This trend is likely to accelerate during Trump’s second term.