[Jungkook Interview] Lee Cheol-hee "Has Become a De Facto Figurehead President", Kang Won-taek "What Matters Is Crisis Awareness"

Gang Won-taek "Talks of President Leaving Party Likely Next Year"
Lee Cheol-hee "'Kim Geon-hee Suspicion' Must Be Resolved Through Investigation"

President Yoon Suk-yeol's term has passed the halfway mark. He has entered the second half of his administration. The conflicts between the ruling and opposition parties, highlighted by the special investigation into First Lady Kim Geon-hee and the trial of opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, are intensifying day by day. Political instability symbolized by 'impeachment' has also increased. Politics that fail to resolve issues and resort to confrontation are not giving hope to the people. At the start of the second half of the Yoon administration, we diagnosed the current political situation and explored possibilities for change through a dialogue with Kang Won-taek, professor of political science and diplomacy at Seoul National University, and former National Assembly member Lee Cheol-hee. The discussion took place on the afternoon of the 12th at 3 p.m. in the 11th-floor conference room of Asia Economy in Chungmuro, Jung-gu, Seoul, lasting for an hour and a half.

First, how do you view Korean politics these days?

Kang Won-taek (hereafter Kang): The disappearance of politics? Political impotence? These words come to mind. Politics always involves conflict and differences. But in the past, there was the ability to resolve them; recently, politics seems to have become powerless. I think the reason is less about political polarization and more about the incompetence and lack of experience of political leaders. It feels like politics now only looks at its own side.

All reforms face resistance or vested interests. Political skill and leadership lie in resolving and overcoming these. That requires meeting and persuading the opposition party and mediating with those who have vested interests. Nationally, such capacity has disappeared. Although the Yoon Suk-yeol government has achieved nothing remarkable in the past two and a half years, looking back over the past decade, it seems similar. Overall, Korean political leadership has weakened.

Lee Cheol-hee (hereafter Lee): The country seems on the verge of collapse because of politics. From the perspective of someone who has been involved in practical politics, it is disheartening. I feel ashamed and frustrated. I cannot deny my responsibility for politics becoming like this. As a member of the political community, I feel a sense of responsibility. In the past, politics played a role in somewhat reconciling conflicts or moving to the next stage at critical moments. But now, that function has completely disappeared. Politics is strangling the country. Instead of resolving conflicts, it is fostering and amplifying them, which will eventually ruin the nation.

Therefore, from now until the next presidential election or the following government is the last chance. If the confrontational politics where both camps face off and must 'kill to survive' continues and extends for another five years after the election, the future of the Republic of Korea will be very bleak.

Political Talk. Photo by Dongju Yoon

Then where should we look for the seeds of change and hope for new politics?

Kang: In the short term, the president must act. Two and a half years have passed, and as the approval ratings show, nothing has been done well; the results are disastrous. Every president starts as an amateur. Even DJ (former President Kim Dae-jung), who prepared diligently, started as an amateur. Now, something must change (by President Yoon). He must awaken, lead new changes, and boldly change what was not done or was done poorly in the past two and a half years. In the long term, this transitional period has a generational aspect. The 386 generation has been in politics for too long. There must be generational change. If young people come in and lead new agendas, the story might be different.

Lee: I fully agree that the president's role is significant, but I have no expectations. Looking at what has been done so far or recent press conferences, the president shows no sign of exercising integrative leadership or uniting forces for the future. I have given up hope. The opposition party also bears responsibility. The opposition holds strong legislative power. With this power, can they only confront and face off? I understand they are the opposition, but their excessively confrontational and adversarial stance is also the responsibility of the majority party holding legislative power.

Change must come from within the parties through different voices. Different factions and groups must create change through internal ideological struggles. In this regard, the ruling party People Power Party bears considerable responsibility for President Yoon's failure. The ruling party should have guided the president well and put guardrails to prevent him from going astray, but instead, they only praised and followed him blindly, making the president fearless. The ruling party's words began to lose effect. Therefore, the ruling party should properly perform multiple roles: checking, persuading, and supporting the president. Only then can President Yoon be forced to change; relying on his goodwill is already too late.

The first half of the Yoon administration has passed. How do you evaluate it?

Lee: About 17 points. Almost ungradable. What I focus on is not the First Lady's issues or personnel problems but overall incompetence. It seems thoroughly incompetent. In all areas?economy, security, politics, society, culture?there is incompetence. Especially socio-economic incompetence is significant. Ordinary people's lives keep getting harder, but instead of focusing energy on that and showing presidential leadership, attention is diverted to personnel or the First Lady's issues. The fundamental cause is economic incompetence. If the economy were better and had improved under this government, the public might not be so harsh.

The reason people are angry is that socio-economic issues are not addressed, and attention is diverted elsewhere. If this is not resolved, recovery will be difficult. But the economy is not just about domestic conditions; exports and the external environment are changing drastically. China's economy is weak, and with Trump back in the U.S., are we prepared? Apparently not. Even Samsung's semiconductor issues are not just Samsung's problem. Samsung Electronics holds a significant share in our economy, so it is a national agenda, but it is being neglected. If I had to sum up the first two and a half years in one word, it is 'incompetence.'

Kang: There was no humility. He lacked political experience, and having won by a narrow margin of less than 1%, the president's primary role should have been to bring others in. By broadening and solidifying the support coalition, that could have been a strength. Being inexperienced, he should have been humble and willing to learn, but he was arrogant from the start. The less political experience one has, the more one should listen to the party. But right after becoming president, he ousted former party leader Lee Jun-seok, a crucial pillar of his winning coalition, in a very humiliating way. That was the start of the overall damage to approval ratings. Then, as we know, there is hardly any communication from the president.

President Yoon's approval rating has dropped to 17% in some polls, and other polls show low twenties. How should we interpret this situation?

Lee: Whether 17% or 20% does not matter much. It is extremely low. The president is, to put it in English, an unpresidential president. Because he is not acting like a president, people do not respond. I joke that President Yoon has three power bases: regionally, TK (Daegu-Gyeongbuk); by faction, the prosecution; mentally, his wife?but the wife has been neutralized. TK support has completely shaken. The last base is the prosecution, which will soon be shaken too. With all three power bases shaken, what does he have to govern with?

Seventeen percent approval is almost nonexistent. Low approval means no authority. The media treats him differently, and civil servants do too. The only strategic asset a president must protect to the end is approval rating. Even if everything else is lost, with approval, one can endure. But this president has little power base and rock-bottom approval, so he is effectively a figurehead president. The government is not functioning. It is beyond lame duck; it is dead duck.

Political Talk. Photo by Dongju Yoon

Kang: Two and a half years have been given. Now is the time for him to change and do various things related to approval rating recovery. First, it is crucial to use people broadly. If he tries to control everything, bureaucrats will stop moving. By the end of next year, talk about the next presidential candidate will begin, and with local elections overlapping, politics will take over, and from the latter half of next year, no one will pay attention to President Yoon.

He has about one year to work, but if he continues with the current leadership style, there will be a president but no presidential role for a year. So the most important thing now seems to be a sense of crisis. The People Power Party may feel this less because it has few metropolitan area lawmakers, so the sense of reality is less. With TK support dropping significantly, they might realize this cannot continue.

Lee: To add, one reason the People Power Party is floating and lacks crisis awareness is the trauma from impeachment. Another is being stuck in the Lee Jae-myung swamp. They think if only they solve the Lee Jae-myung issue, everything will be resolved, but it won't. Handling Lee Jae-myung does not solve the crisis. It is a separate issue. The idea that 'if we catch this leader, the problem is solved' is itself a swamp they must escape quickly.

What about Han Dong-hoon, the People Power Party leader? Can he become a leader of the ruling camp?

Lee: He is trying but still stuck in the prosecutorial investigation mindset of a special investigation prosecutor. He talks about meeting public expectations and quick responses but is somewhat lacking or slow. We expected leadership that would organize the ruling camp, persuade the president, and lead party change, but that has not happened. In English, he is 'too tiny'?too petty, obsessed with facts, and stuck in his logic. Even if he overreaches a bit, if he tries to bring about change in a big direction and gains public sympathy, people will support him. But that resolve and strength are not felt.

If this continues, it will be difficult for him to become the future leader of the ruling camp. Han must overcome one wall: the public's reluctance to give power to a former prosecutor. He has not overcome this at all. He still gives a prosecutorial impression. At this rate, he will not be an alternative. If he faces the opposition candidate one-on-one, winning is unlikely. If he is a losing card, he will be discarded immediately.

Kang: Why was Han Dong-hoon chosen as leader? It seems to reflect a sentiment similar to when Yoon Suk-yeol was nominated. Rather than as a politician, Han stood out as a kind of fighter who could confront the opposition. The difference is that while Yoon had no political experience, Han has time to gain experience. For him, this is a training period and a verification period for supporters and the public. It is still too early to judge.

How will the Kim Geon-hee First Lady issue be resolved? Will it be settled soon, or will it continue?

Lee: It will continue. The president must structurally create a system where the wife's voice is less reflected. For example, by closely consulting with the party and gathering opinions, and having other voices come from the secretariat so that opinions are structurally organized, it becomes harder for her to intervene. Currently, President Yoon is isolated. Because he scolds, secretaries dare not speak frankly, and the party's efforts are ineffective, so he is isolated alone. Naturally, the First Lady's voice and role grow. Reducing this is not about telling her 'don't do that' as a couple but about normalizing the government's discussion and decision-making structure to reduce her interference.

The president will not accept a special investigation. The same goes for a permanent special investigation. But if this is not resolved now, the next government will definitely investigate. Then the backlash will be stronger, and politically more controversial. So, though painful, this issue must be resolved in some form.

Kang: It will be difficult to accept a special investigation. The First Lady issue is easy for many to understand and raises awareness. The opposition can continue to use it, and the president will find it hard to accept. It can be a long-lasting issue. So, first, it is important to show that the First Lady can no longer act. The appointment of a special inspector and the establishment of a second secretariat must be done. Proactively, it must be clear why these are being done. Currently, all decisions and actions are too slow. It is important to show awareness of the seriousness and that measures have been taken to prevent recurrence. But so far, nothing has come out, only excuses.

Can appointing a special inspector and establishing a second secretariat be a solution?

Lee: Better than nothing. But it is not the fundamental solution. Historically, when presidential family issues arose, they were ultimately resolved by prosecution investigations. For example, the Kim Hyun-chul case during President Kim Young-sam's era and the sons of President Kim Dae-jung were all resolved that way. It is inevitable. Trying to block it by force will not work forever. The prosecution may turn the tables by the second half of the term, even before the next government. If family controversies continue, it will move to issues involving the brother or mother, possibly leading to power-related corruption cases. It will spiral out of control. That is how public sentiment works. To stop it, one must concede something, but if one insists on stopping without any concession, who will accept it?

The opposition demands presidential impeachment and constitutional amendments to shorten the term. How realistic are these?

Kang: Impeachment is difficult. Having experienced it once, everyone knows the consequences and costs. If the president is removed by impeachment again, the presidential system will be considered dead. The fixed term characteristic of the presidential system would be destroyed, and whoever is elected next will face impeachment attempts by opponents. It reveals systemic limitations and is undesirable nationally.

Constitutional amendments are necessary. But the opposition Democratic Party's proposal to shorten the term and have a four-year renewable term effectively means an eight-year presidency. Four years renewable is basically eight years. The current problems stem from the presidential system, so extending it to eight years is not the right direction. Therefore, if amendments are made, a comprehensive review of the 1987 system should be done to move toward decentralization, appropriately distributing powers between the president and prime minister and between central and local governments.

Lee: Impeachment, term-shortening amendments, or resignation are all difficult. The president's current behavior seems to invite impeachment, but the People Power Party bears too much burden from the previous impeachment. Since losing the presidential election is almost certain, the party will strongly oppose impeachment. Also, impeachment would devastate the surroundings, harming not only the president but many senior officials and elites.

Then what might happen? For example, the president could be expelled from the party, and a kind of neutral cabinet could be formed with the National Assembly recommending a prime minister who effectively exercises appointment rights to form a broad cabinet.

This could be done without constitutional amendments if the National Assembly recommends and the president accepts the prime minister. Such possibilities exist, but realistically, will the president do this? It depends on what choices People Power Party lawmakers make regarding their elections, local elections, and the presidential election.

The former lawmaker said that Representative Lee Jae-myung should learn lessons from the U.S. presidential election. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo

Kang: Over time, the People Power Party will strongly differentiate itself from President Yoon. Many presidents have been pushed to leave their parties in the second half of their terms. Talk of leaving the party may arise next year. The president must pay attention to party-government relations. The party is always ready to jump ship. If the president cannot listen to unpleasant stories or show that the Kim First Lady issue is being handled, the situation will worsen significantly next year.

Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party has recently taken a rightward turn. Is this to create a favorable environment for his trial or to appeal to centrists for power? Opinions differ.

Kang: Probably both. As a leading presidential candidate, changing his image might pressure the judiciary. Such factors cannot be ruled out. But fundamentally, support for Lee in the Honam region is about 30-35%. If he is not yet accepted in his core region, expanding to centrist voters has been even more difficult. So this effort exists.

Lee: Lee should learn from the failure of U.S. Democratic candidate Harris. Even campaigning with celebrities like Taylor Swift did not work. Constantly talking about democracy and abortion rights did not win voters' hearts. The success of progressive parties depends on socio-economic issues related to livelihoods. Without continuously proposing alternatives and relying only on personal competitiveness, effective election strategies are difficult. Does Lee Jae-myung have any socio-economic programs? Is there anything tangible? Nothing addresses immediate life issues. One might ask why we should do this, but as a presidential candidate and party leader with legislative power, he has responsibilities.

How will the first trial verdict on Lee Jae-myung affect the situation?

Kang: It will affect the Democratic Party. Many within the party are quietly waiting. Different voices will emerge, questioning whether things can continue as they are.

Lee: Not really. It is unlikely. If there were voices to be raised, they would have been raised already. Everything is settled. Even if he is convicted, demands for him to step down as leader will not arise. Lee himself will act as if nothing happened, so no noticeable change will occur. If the president's approval were high, Lee would face great pressure, but that is not the case now.

What is required for President Yoon to smoothly lead the government in the second half of his term?

Lee: In short, 'Be presidential.' Since democratization, several presidents have come and gone. There have been ways presidents work, a kind of grammar or convention for performing the presidency. Just following that would be a huge change for President Yoon, and the public would accept it. So, no complicated solution is needed.

Professor Kang said that it is most important for the president to realize that the current situation is a crisis. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo

Kang: It is important to realize 'I am in a crisis and isolated.' Then solutions emerge. To overcome the crisis and isolation, he must meet many people. At the same time, he must drastically change personnel. How inclusively he appoints people is very important. If necessary, he should even gesture to the opposition, asking if they can recommend someone in certain fields.

To solve problems, the opposition must be considered a partner in some form, but that is not happening. The president is isolated not only from the opposition but also from his party and the public. To break out of this, he must open up and approach others. If approval rises to about 30%, a momentum for change can be found. He has about one year left to do well. He must have a strong sense of crisis and feel it himself for change to happen. Without that, no matter how much is said now, it is useless.