[Insight & Opinion] The MAGA Shock and Korea’s Internal and External Crises

Trump Calls South Korea a "Cash Machine"
Urgent Need for Political Measures to Reassure the Public

The U.S. presidential election, which was difficult to call until the very end, surprisingly ended with a landslide victory for Trump. According to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the reason for Trump’s win was that voters from traditionally Democratic-leaning groups?Hispanics, African Americans, and young people?switched their support to Trump.

What is noteworthy is that the cause of this shift in voter sentiment lies in economic reasons. Especially for low-educated groups who compete with undocumented immigrants for jobs and suffer from inflation-induced financial hardship, Trump’s promises to protect their jobs by deporting illegal immigrants were far more appealing than Democratic candidate Harris’s value-centered pledges such as abortion rights and the use of low-carbon fuels.

Trump, who presented “MAGA (Make America Great Again)” as his national vision, declared in his victory acceptance speech that he would “heal America” and “fix all of America’s problems.” His first priority is strengthening the border and deporting illegal immigrants. He also pledged to promote corporate investment by lowering the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%, and to protect American companies by universally raising tariffs to 10-20%, and up to 60% on Chinese imports.

Of course, implementing these pledges as policies will involve enormous costs, making significant revisions inevitable, so some analyses suggest there is no need to be overly concerned. The American Immigration Council (AIC) report estimates that deporting 13 million undocumented immigrants would cost $315 billion and cause economic losses amounting to 4.2% to 6.8% of GDP. Meanwhile, a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco projected that while the impact of tariffs on China was limited, the side effects of increased inflationary pressure and higher corporate investment costs in the U.S. are severe, likely reducing long-term economic growth.

Trump’s pledges have both positive and negative effects on the U.S. economy, making the outcome difficult to predict. Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and reportedly appointed chairman of the newly established “Government Efficiency Commission” under the Trump administration, has mentioned that government spending cuts could cause a short-term economic downturn in the U.S. Furthermore, while immigration restrictions and tariff hikes have strong negative impacts on the U.S. economy, corporate tax cuts and deregulation are expected to enhance productivity and efficiency. Thus, the pursuit of the “MAGA” vision could bring significant short-term turmoil to both the U.S. and the global economy, while also holding the potential to transform the U.S. into an efficient and powerful innovation-driven nation in the long term.

Meanwhile, Europe faces shocks from the possibility of the U.S. withdrawing from NATO and the Paris Agreement, as well as threats of tariff increases. Moreover, North Korea and Russia have signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty that includes military aid in case of war, while Trump, who once referred to South Korea as a “cash machine,” is poised to demand a substantial increase in defense cost-sharing.

In this situation where significant changes to the global security order and economic landscape are expected due to Trump’s election, South Korea faces the grave challenge of internal and external crises, struggling not only to formulate measures to protect national interests but even to maintain its government. Above all, the government and National Assembly must face the seriousness of the current situation, and beyond defending or ousting the administration, the most important priorities are national security and the people. It is urgent to demonstrate national capabilities that can reassure a public facing a crisis of “no trust, no foundation.”

Kim Dong-won, Former Visiting Professor at Korea University