As the special Diet session to nominate the next prime minister is set to convene on the 11th following Japan's general election for the House of Representatives (lower house), incumbent Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru is widely expected to be re-elected. However, even if Prime Minister Ishiba retains his position, it is anticipated that without support from opposition parties in the House of Representatives, passing various budget bills and legislation will be difficult, effectively making him a 'figurehead prime minister.'
The special Diet session will be convened in the afternoon, during which separate prime ministerial nomination elections will be held in the plenary sessions of both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors (upper house). Local media outlets such as Yomiuri Shimbun and public broadcaster NHK report that Prime Minister Ishiba, who took office on the 1st of last month, is highly likely to be re-elected as the 103rd prime minister after the first round of voting in the House of Representatives followed by a runoff vote.
In the first round of voting in the House of Representatives, each party leader will be a candidate for the prime minister nomination election. The ruling party is expected to vote for Ishiba, the president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and current prime minister, while opposition parties will vote for their respective party leaders according to party policy. It is anticipated that no candidate will reach the majority threshold required for election as prime minister. In last month's general election, the ruling LDP (191 seats) and Komeito (24 seats) combined secured 215 seats, falling 18 seats short of the majority of 233 seats in the 465-seat House of Representatives.
In this case, it is expected that Prime Minister Ishiba and Noda Yoshihiko, leader of the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, will face off again in a runoff vote in the House of Representatives. If a runoff vote is held, it will be the first time in 30 years since 1994 and the fifth time in history.
Opposition parties such as Nippon Ishin no Kai and the Democratic Party for the People have decided as party policy to vote for their own party leaders even in the runoff vote. Since any votes cast for candidates other than the top two in the runoff vote will be invalid, it is highly likely that Ishiba, the president of the largest party, the LDP, will be re-elected. In the House of Councillors, the ruling parties hold a majority, so Ishiba is expected to be smoothly elected as prime minister in the first round of voting.
If re-elected, Prime Minister Ishiba plans to complete the cabinet reshuffle on the same day and launch the Second Ishiba Cabinet. In the Second Ishiba Cabinet, only three members will be replaced: two from the LDP who lost their seats in the general election, the Ministers of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries and Justice, and one from Komeito, the Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. Key cabinet members such as the Chief Cabinet Secretary, Minister for Foreign Affairs, and Minister of Defense are expected to remain in their posts. The new Minister of Justice is expected to be Suzuki Keisuke, former Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs; the Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries is expected to be Eto Taku, former Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries; and the Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism is expected to be Nakano Hiromasa, former Parliamentary Secretary for Economy, Trade and Industry.
Even if Ishiba is re-elected, the ruling parties' failure to secure a majority in last month's general election means that cooperation from opposition parties will be essential for passing budget bills and other legislation, significantly limiting his room for maneuver. The Democratic Party for the People, which quadrupled its seats in the election, is expected to hold the 'casting vote' between the LDP and the Constitutional Democratic Party.
There are also views that Ishiba's tenure will be short-lived even if he is re-elected this time. Although calls for a change in prime minister are not strong within the LDP at present, the approval rating for the Ishiba Cabinet has dropped to the 30-40% range, down by around 10 percentage points just one month after its launch. Accordingly, local media foresee a strong possibility of calls for a change ahead of the House of Councillors election and the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election scheduled for July next year.
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