Harris Faces Losing 'Blue Wall'... Trump Leads in Pennsylvania Too

[US Election 2024]
As of 12:45 PM KST
US Presidential Election Vote Counting Status

On the 5th (local time), during the vote counting process of the presidential election that will determine the owner of the White House in the United States for the next four years, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are fiercely battling over swing states. In the early stages of counting, Vice President Harris was leading in Pennsylvania, the largest swing state, but now the state is leaning toward former President Trump, signaling that even the Midwestern 'Blue Wall' is turning red (Republican). However, since the counting is still ongoing and the 'magic number 270 (270 electoral votes)' is far from being reached, it is difficult to predict the winner of the presidential election.

[Image source=Getty Images Yonhap News]

According to AP News and others, as of 12:45 PM Korean time on the day, Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Harris secured 113 electoral votes by consecutively announcing victories starting with the 'blue state' Vermont. Republican presidential candidate former President Trump has also obtained 210 electoral votes, mainly from the 'red states' Kentucky and Indiana. To win the presidential election, a candidate must secure more than half of the 538 electoral votes allocated to each state, that is, at least 270 votes.

The key battlegrounds are the seven swing states, called so because the voter sentiment swings like a pendulum. While the competition in the swing states was tight in the early stages, the vote count is gradually tilting toward former President Trump. In Pennsylvania, the largest swing state, with 63% of votes counted, former President Trump leads with 51%. Just an hour earlier, Vice President Harris was leading with around 60%. Similarly, in Michigan, part of the 'Blue Wall' Rust Belt, former President Trump reversed the lead with 50.4% at a 26% count rate compared to an hour earlier. Another 'Blue Wall' state, Wisconsin, where voting closed at 11 AM Korean time, also shows former President Trump leading with 50.5% at a 57% count rate.

For Vice President Harris, this means losing the early momentum in the Blue Wall. To win this election, Vice President Harris must hold onto the three Midwestern Blue Wall Rust Belt states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Especially important is winning Pennsylvania, the largest swing state with 19 electoral votes.

Among the seven swing states, Georgia has the most votes counted. With 90% of votes counted, former President Trump holds 51.1%, while Vice President Harris has 48.2%. In North Carolina, where the early count was close but former President Trump gained the upper hand, Trump still leads with 86% of votes counted. North Carolina, with 16 electoral votes, is the only one among the seven swing states that former President Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. Like Wisconsin, Arizona, where voting closed late, shows a close race in the 49% range. Nevada has not yet been counted.

Meanwhile, analysis models released on election day predicted Vice President Harris's chances of winning to be slightly higher by a very narrow margin. Nate Silver, a statistician famous for his 'spot-on predictions' in past U.S. presidential elections, analyzed the expected electoral votes as 271 for Harris and 267 for former President Trump. The polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight produced similar results. According to this site, Vice President Harris's chance of winning is 50%, and she is expected to secure 270 electoral votes. Former President Trump's expected electoral votes are 268.