The Polls Are Neck and Neck... NYT Says "The Result Could End in a Landslide Victory"

NYT Points Out Margin of Error Limits
If Errors Occur Within the Same Range
One Side Essentially Achieves a Decisive Victory

With Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump neck and neck in major polls, the New York Times (NYT) reported on the 5th (local time) that the actual vote count could end in a landslide victory for a particular candidate.

According to the NYT, unlike various polls showing the two candidates virtually tied, the reason the actual election results may lean heavily toward one candidate is due to the margin of error in polling. The NYT explained the limitations of the margin of error in polls, stating, "The tools pollsters use to predict support?such as voting intention, interest in the election, the importance of the election outcome, and past voter turnout?are quite limited."

The NYT presented a landslide scenario based on the possibility that pollsters underestimated Vice President Harris and former President Trump within the margin of error (assumed ±4.8%) in seven battleground states.

The NYT explained, "If Harris wins all seven battleground states securing a total of 319 electoral votes while Trump secures only 219, it means the polls underestimated Harris by 4.8 percentage points in each of the seven battleground states." Conversely, "If Trump secures 312 electoral votes and Harris 226, it means the polls underestimated Trump by 4.8 percentage points in each of the seven battleground states."

The NYT stated, "If this year's polls err within the same margin of error (±4.8%) for either side, the winning candidate would achieve a decisive victory (a 4.8 percentage point margin of victory)."

Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, emphasized, "A candidate could surpass 315 electoral votes in this election and win the national vote by a 5 percentage point margin, which means the election could end in a landslide victory?a term no one has used this year."

The NYT noted, "If the election results end in a one-sided victory, unlike the consistently close polls, distrust in the election process itself could increase further," adding, "Therefore, it is necessary to repeatedly emphasize the possibility of polling margin of error mistakes."