"Closer Than a Coin Toss"… US Statistical Expert Changes Stance, Predicts Harris Victory

US Presidential Election Main Vote Begins... Global Attention Intensifies
Harris Victory Predicted in Some Simulations
Nate Silver "Harris Win Probability 50.015%"

On the 5th (local time), as the main voting for the U.S. presidential election began, some election prediction simulations caught attention by changing the lead of the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, to a narrow victory for the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris. Nate Silver, known as the 'statistical guru' in the U.S., overturned his earlier prediction favoring Trump and presented a slim win for Harris in his final forecast. Based on the election prediction simulation run 80,000 times at midnight, he stated, "Harris is projected to win 40,012 times (a winning probability of 50.015%)."

Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump (left) and Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris shake hands before a TV debate held at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on September 10 (local time). [Image source=Yonhap News]

He usually runs simulations 40,000 times, but this time reportedly doubled the number. Previously, he had contributed to the New York Times (NYT) saying, "All seven battleground states are expected to be very close," but "if I had to say who has the advantage, it would be 'Trump'." However, on the final day, he changed his prediction to a win for Harris. Nonetheless, Silver explained, "The probability of heads in a coin toss is 50.5%, which is higher than Harris's winning probability," adding, "In our simulation model, the race between the two candidates is closer than a coin toss."

On the same day, the British weekly The Economist announced its election result prediction model showing a 56% winning probability for Vice President Harris and 43% for former President Trump. The previous day, the odds were tied at 50-50, but within one day, the gap widened to 13 percentage points. The Economist stated, "In the final update, Harris's chances of winning rose from 50% to 56%," and "With little time left until election day, our model quickly responded to the latest polling data."

On the afternoon of the 5th, a citizen is watching news coverage related to the U.S. presidential election at an electronics store in Yongsan-gu, Seoul. [Image source=Yonhap News]

As this presidential election shows an extremely close race between the two candidates up to the final polls, both candidates spent considerable time campaigning in battleground states to secure the 270 electoral votes needed. The seven battleground states?Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada?are difficult to call for either candidate and will determine the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.

Due to the nature of the U.S. election system, it is expected to take more time to announce the election results. According to the Associated Press (AP), in the 2012 election, victory declarations were reported after 11:30 p.m. Eastern Time on election day. In the 2016 election, results came in the early morning of the following day, and in the 2020 election, the winner was known only four days later.