Provocations Just Before the US Presidential Election... North Korea Crossing the Red Line Until the Last Moment

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North Korea carried out a missile provocation just before the U.S. presidential election. It came five days after the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of targeting the U.S. mainland, seemingly aiming to leave a strong impression until the very end. This is interpreted as a message that whoever becomes the next U.S. president must negotiate with North Korea, which desires nuclear weapons state status.

According to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the military detected several short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) launched toward the East Sea from the Sariwon area in North Hwanghae Province around 7:30 a.m. on the 5th. Based on Washington D.C. time, this was at 6:30 p.m. the day before the election, targeting the timing of the evening news until the last moment. The U.S. election begins on the 5th (local time) at midnight, which is 2 p.m. Korean time, starting with the northern mountainous village of Dixville Notch in New Hampshire.

North Korea’s provocation is assessed to place more weight on sending a political message rather than military or technical verification. This aligns with its recent daily emphasis on the "unchanging line of strengthening nuclear forces." Kim Yo-jong, vice director of the North Korean Workers' Party, condemned the joint South Korea-U.S.-Japan air drills conducted in response to North Korea’s ICBM launch in a statement released just before the SRBM launch, calling them "the most hostile and dangerous aggressive nature of the enemies." She emphasized that "this proves the legitimacy and urgency of the nuclear force strengthening line we have chosen to implement."

North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un also declared at the site of the first ICBM test launch of the year on the 31st of last month that "we will never change the line of strengthening nuclear forces." This ICBM, the 'Hwasong-19,' is based on new solid fuel and features an 11-axle (22-wheel) launch vehicle. Whenever doubts have been raised about the 'reentry technology into the atmosphere,' North Korea has reacted strongly; this time as well, it launched at a high angle rather than the normal angle (30?45 degrees) that would put the entire U.S. mainland within range. It appears the emphasis was on the message rather than an actual provocation.

The series of 'calculated provocations' carried out just before the U.S. election can also be interpreted as a demonstration of the close North Korea-Russia ties aimed at the South Korea-U.S. alliance. It shows a determination to counter the nuclear-based alliance of South Korea and the U.S. with nuclear forces. On the 4th (local time), Russian President Vladimir Putin met unexpectedly with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui, who was visiting Russia, demonstrating strong solidarity. Analysts suggest there was 'prior coordination' between the two sides regarding Russia’s launch of the solid-fueled ICBM 'Yars' from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome a day before North Korea’s ICBM provocation.

From the perspective of the flow of reports in the Rodong Sinmun, which North Korean residents see, there also appears to be an aspect of using the provocation for 'internal cohesion.' Following the announcement of the ICBM launch, the newspaper on the same day reported that Kim Jong-un visited flood-affected areas. Amid public unrest caused by the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia, the introduction of the new ICBM serves to strengthen internal unity while promoting Kim Jong-un as a 'leader who cares for the people.'

A Joint Chiefs of Staff official said, "We have strengthened surveillance and vigilance in preparation for additional (North Korean missile) launches, and we are maintaining a full readiness posture while closely sharing relevant information with U.S. and Japanese authorities."