'Harris's Late Surge' Leads in 4 of 7 Battleground States... US Election in Uncertainty [US Choice 2024]

NYT·Siena College Poll
Harris Leads in 4 States, Trump Leads in 1
Undecided Votes Shift to Harris... High Early Voting Rate Also Influential
Key Battleground Pennsylvania Remains a Variable

With the U.S. presidential election just two days away, a nail-biting race is unfolding in the seven key battleground states that hold the key to entering the White House. Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate former President Donald Trump are locked in a tight contest until the very end. Harris, once considered an underdog as her rising poll numbers stalled, is showing strong momentum in the battleground states, including a surprising performance in Iowa, traditionally regarded as a "Trump stronghold." However, in Pennsylvania, the most fiercely contested state, the two candidates are tied in the polls, making the election outcome difficult to predict until the last moment.

On the 3rd (local time), the New York Times (NYT) and Siena College conducted a poll of 7,879 voters in seven battleground states from October 24 to the day before. The results showed that Vice President Harris holds a lead over former President Trump in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia (margin of error ±3.5 percentage points).

Vice President Harris leads in Nevada (49% to 46%), North Carolina (48% to 46%), Wisconsin (49% to 47%), and Georgia (48% to 47%). In Pennsylvania (48% to 48%) and Michigan (47% to 47%), the two candidates are tied. Former President Trump leads only in Arizona with 49% support compared to Harris's 45%.

The NYT noted, "It has been decades since such a razor-thin race has unfolded in multiple states across the Sun Belt and Rust Belt," adding, "As the candidates fiercely compete and the campaign enters its final stretch, the outcome remains highly uncertain."

After President Joe Biden withdrew from the race at the end of July, Harris became the new Democratic candidate, but her poll numbers peaked in August and did not rise further, putting the Harris campaign on high alert. However, as the election approaches, analysis suggests that undecided voters are leaning toward Harris. According to the NYT poll, 8% of respondents recently decided on their candidate, with 55% supporting Harris, 11 percentage points ahead of Trump's 44%.

High early voting turnout is also working in Harris's favor. Forty percent of battleground state voters reported having voted early, with Harris leading Trump by 8 percentage points among early voters. Although Trump's campaign encouraged early voting among its base, making it difficult to predict which candidate would benefit, the situation is currently favoring Harris. According to the University of Florida Election Research Institute, 75 million Americans have already voted early, nearly half of the total 2020 election turnout of approximately 158.34 million voters.

Additionally, Harris is making a surprising showing in Iowa, considered a Trump stronghold. According to political media outlet The Hill and local media Des Moines Register, Harris leads Trump in Iowa with 47% support to Trump's 44%. Iowa, which supported Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, was not initially considered a battleground state. If Harris wins Iowa, which has six electoral votes, it could give her a strategic advantage in this extremely close race.

However, neither candidate has secured a clear lead beyond the margin of error in all seven battleground states, leaving the election outcome shrouded in uncertainty. The rise in Trump's support in Pennsylvania, where the candidates are tied, adds another variable. Pennsylvania has the largest number of electoral votes among battleground states, with 19. Poll results in Pennsylvania have fluctuated between the candidates depending on the polling organization. According to CNN, the candidates are tied at 48% in Pennsylvania. A poll by the University of Massachusetts Lowell shows Harris with a 1 percentage point lead, while Atlas Intel reports Trump leading by 3 percentage points. National polls also vary by organization. An NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters conducted from October 30 to the day before shows the candidates tied at 49% (margin of error ±3.1 percentage points). Conversely, an ABC News/Ipsos poll shows Harris leading Trump 49% to 46% by 3 percentage points.