Operation Plans Mentioned by South Korea and U.S. Defense Chiefs [Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club]

Training Under the Assumption That North Korea Will Use Nuclear Weapons Starting Next Year

South Korea and the United States have agreed to incorporate a joint operational plan (OPLAN) based on the premise that North Korea would use nuclear weapons starting from next year's exercises. Joint exercises are conducted based on operational plans, but until now, the operational plans did not reflect scenarios involving North Korean nuclear use, making it impossible to conduct joint exercises assuming such a situation.

On the 30th (local time), at the U.S. Department of Defense (Washington D.C.), Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun (left in the photo) met with U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin (right in the photo) during the 56th Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) between South Korea and the United States. (Photo by Ministry of National Defense)

On the 30th (local time), South Korean Minister of National Defense Kim Yong-hyun and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin held the 56th Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) near the Pentagon in Washington, D.C., where they discussed this matter. In a joint statement, the two ministers announced, "We have decided to include realistic scenarios in future joint exercises, including responses to North Korea's use of nuclear weapons."

Starting with ROK-US Operational Plan Number 5000 Series

Operational plans are referred to as OPLANs. These plans are developed by the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and begin with numbers in the 5000 series. South Korea and the U.S. have previously created OPLAN 5015 in 2015 by integrating OPLAN 5029, which prepares for sudden changes in North Korea, OPLAN 5027 for full-scale war, and peacetime plans responding to localized provocations. OPLAN 5015, also known as the "Kim Jong-un decapitation operation," is the latest operational plan that includes unit deployments for preemptive strikes and command structure elimination in the event of full-scale war with North Korea, and it is classified as a Level 2 secret by the ROK-US combined forces.

The ROK-US have conducted joint exercises applying OPLAN 5015. However, since it was created over ten years ago, there have been criticisms that it does not reflect changes in North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities or the shifts in combined forces' power. The exercises have focused on striking Pyongyang's Yongbyon nuclear facility, key command centers, and major missile bases across North Korea. They have also concentrated on drills to shorten the time for advanced strategic assets such as U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines to arrive on the Korean Peninsula.

North Korea Hacks Defense Internal Network, Leaks OPLAN

The problem arose in 2016. OPLAN 5015 was leaked due to a hacking incident of the defense internal network, suspected to be the work of North Korea. The military formed a follow-up task force (TF) consisting of 16 members, including the Joint Chiefs of Staff Operations Director, pledging technical and institutional improvements. They also established 34 measures to prevent recurrence of hacking incidents. Some have argued that a new operational plan is effectively necessary due to the leak of the existing plan.

Between the ROK and U.S. authorities, the need to revise the operational plan was raised as North Korea miniaturized nuclear weapons and diversified nuclear delivery systems such as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The new plan also reflects the threat of North Korea's small tactical nuclear weapons. It is observed that North Korea is developing short-range weapons as tactical nuclear delivery means targeting not only South Korea but also U.S. bases in Japan adjacent to the East Sea.

ROK-US Agree on New OPLAN Establishment... Completion This Year

In 2021, the ROK and U.S. agreed to establish a new joint operational plan during the Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) between the two defense ministers. The revision of the OPLAN proceeds in the order of approving the Strategic Planning Guidance (SPG), which serves as a comprehensive guideline, agreeing on the Strategic Planning Directive (SPD), and then drafting the OPLAN. The SPD agreement was completed by the end of March 2022, and full drafting work has since begun.

The new OPLAN was refined through joint exercises this year. Specific checks were conducted on combined nuclear and conventional integrated operations (CNI), including the preemptive elimination of North Korean leadership. It also includes provisions for regularly updating the priority target list, such as North Korea's strategic and tactical nuclear storage facilities and nuclear warhead missiles. Although the OPLAN is classified as Top Secret and detailed contents are not disclosed, efforts have been made to closely monitor North Korea's new operational plan trends and incorporate them into South Korea's plan. Starting next year, it will be applied not only to ROK-US joint exercises but also to the government's Ulchi exercises.

In particular, the new OPLAN is expected to include Joint Defense Point Intercepts (JDPI). In 2016, the ROK-US selected about 700 JDPI sites, including "biological weapon origin points." However, with the diversification of launch methods such as North Korea's railway missile regiment launching ballistic missiles from trains in September last year, the ROK-US plan will include only specific areas as intercept points, considering that North Korea's railway network exceeds 5,000 km but most lines are single-track and facilities are aging.