The Meaning of the Handshake Between Putin and the UN Secretary-General... A Breakthrough for Ceasefire? [AK Radio]

Response to Concerns of Ukraine Escalation Due to North Korea Troop Deployment
International Situation Changes Dependent on US Presidential Election Results

UN Secretary-General Ant?nio Guterres visited Russia in person on the 24th (local time) and held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This is the first visit by the UN Secretary-General to Russia in over two years since April 2022. The visit drew particular attention as it took place immediately after the international community officially confirmed the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia.

At the BRICS summit held in Kazan, Russia, Secretary-General Guterres emphasized the need for "a just peace in Ukraine that aligns with the UN Charter, international law, and UN General Assembly resolutions." In response, President Putin suggested the inevitability of the Ukraine war, saying, "You said we should live like one big family, but unfortunately, in families, there are often quarrels, disturbances, division of property, and sometimes fights."

Western countries have criticized the visit, saying it provides justification to Russia. Especially with the upcoming U.S. presidential election, there is analysis that the UN's move might be a prelude considering the possibility of former President Donald Trump's election. During his previous term, Trump showed a pro-Russian stance, and if re-elected, it is expected that a ceasefire plan for Ukraine could gain momentum.

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

Some interpret that the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia has raised concerns that this war could expand from a limited conflict between Russia and Ukraine to an international war, putting pressure on the UN. Experts suggest that Russia might officially request troop deployments from other neighboring countries as well. Previously, the French government announced that it would deploy troops independently if the Ukrainian capital Kyiv faced the threat of falling, making direct clashes between Western countries and Russia a possibility that cannot be ruled out.

Meanwhile, in the Middle East, the Israel-Hamas war is entering a new phase as it prolongs. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, allies of the United States, are strengthening military cooperation with Iran, intensifying Israel's isolation. Russia has secured considerable influence in the Middle East through its involvement in the Syrian civil war and is positioning itself as a mediator between Iran and Arab countries.

With the U.S. presidential election approaching, the influence of the Biden administration is weakening. As a lame-duck government, its ability to coordinate in the international community has significantly declined. In this situation, Russia appears to hold the key in both the Ukraine war and the Middle East crisis.

North Korea is showing moves to leverage these changes in the international situation. Recently, it has intensified provocations against South Korea, including blowing up inter-Korean connecting roads, inspecting intercontinental ballistic missile bases, and releasing balloon-borne waste over the presidential office building. Experts interpret these actions as moves aimed at North Korea-U.S. negotiations that could resume after the U.S. presidential election.

The international situation is expected to change significantly depending on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. If Trump is elected, rapid policy changes are anticipated in the Ukraine war and Middle East crisis, and top-down negotiations between North Korea and the U.S. may resume. Conversely, if Harris is elected, the current policy stance is expected to continue, prolonging sanctions against Russia and North Korea.

Ultimately, the results of the U.S. presidential election on November 5 are expected to be a turning point for the reorganization of the international order. South Korea is expected to face new challenges regardless of which candidate wins, requiring the establishment of swift and flexible diplomatic strategies.

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