[2024 US Presidential Election]⑥ Trump Shaking 'Korean Security'... A New Phase in North Korean Nuclear Issue

'America First' Trump... Status Quo with Harris
North Korea Aiming for Nuclear Power, Possible Nuclear Test After Election
Strong China Policy Regardless of Winner, Test for Korea-China Relations

The two major candidates running for the U.S. presidential election have very different approaches in the fields of diplomacy and security. While Vice President Kamala Harris emphasizes 'alliances,' former President Donald Trump tends to view even security as 'business.' This is why significant upheaval is expected in the regional landscape, including the North Korean nuclear issue, if he returns to power. There are calls for scenario-based responses to these two candidates, who stand at opposite extremes.

'Harris Prioritizes 'Relationships,' but Diplomatic Achievements Are 'Questionable'

On the surface, if one were to judge who is more favorable to South Korea, the answer would be Vice President Harris. However, when asked about her achievements in diplomacy and security, it may be difficult to provide a satisfactory answer from South Korea's perspective.

The Washington Post (WP) pointed out this issue as early as July, when she was being mentioned as the Democratic Party's new presidential candidate. Unlike President Joe Biden, who has long accumulated experience and achievements in diplomacy and security, Vice President Harris has been criticized for not showing any significant diplomatic accomplishments. The label attached to her is that she needs to demonstrate distinctiveness rather than mere 'status quo' to gain credibility.

Vice President Harris, a former San Francisco district attorney and California attorney general, has had almost no experience dealing with diplomatic and security matters on the central stage since being elected senator in 2017. This is also the point that former President Trump persistently attacks. He has criticized Harris, who handled southern border issues at the White House, calling her the 'border czar' and highlighting her failure to manage illegal immigrants.

Without her own 'diplomatic color,' Vice President Harris is expected to largely inherit the Biden administration's policies. It is highly likely she will continue to emphasize alliances and friendly nations while focusing on the Indo-Pacific region. Her approach to the North Korean nuclear issue is also expected to be similar to President Biden's. The plan is to strengthen security cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan based on the 'Washington Declaration' and enhance the credibility of extended deterrence.

The Democratic Party stated in its new platform released ahead of this election, "We have stood by our allies, especially South Korea, against provocations including North Korea's illegal missile capabilities, and we will continue to do so."

'Trump Prioritizes 'Cost,' Poised to Shake South Korean Security'

Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is pointing straight ahead during a campaign rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on the 1st (local time). [Image source=Yonhap News]

Unlike the somewhat predictable Vice President Harris, former President Trump embodies 'uncertainty' itself. His attitude of treating diplomatic and security issues as transactional matters is a major concern from South Korea's perspective.

Former President Trump views even alliances from a cost perspective. On the 16th (local time), he claimed on a broadcast, "There are 42,000 U.S. troops in South Korea, but South Korea does not pay." This is factually incorrect. The number of U.S. troops stationed in South Korea is about 28,000, less than 30,000, but he continues to inflate the figure.

He has also repeatedly claimed that South Korea does not pay any defense cost-sharing fees, but all these claims are false. In the recently concluded defense cost-sharing agreement, South Korea set its contribution for 2026 at 1.5192 trillion won, an 8.3% increase from the previous year. The amount will be adjusted annually based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) until 2030.

The day before making such false claims, former President Trump likened South Korea to a 'money machine,' saying, "If I were in the White House, South Korea would pay $10 billion (about 13.8 trillion won) annually." The problem is that his focus on 'maximizing American interests' may resonate persuasively with voters.

In particular, he has been sending daily 'love calls' to North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un. If re-elected, he is likely to sit down directly with Kim, whom he negotiated with in the past. He could temporarily suppress North Korean provocations and highlight this as crisis management ability, using it as leverage in 'security deals' with South Korea.

Skepticism About Denuclearization... North Korea Likely to Aim for Recognition as a Nuclear State

The image shows North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un overseeing artillery firing training of the large combined units of the Korean People's Army last March. [Image source=Yonhap News]

Regardless of the election outcome, there is a possibility that the U.S. calculation toward North Korea could change entirely. The variable is 'skepticism about denuclearization.' On the 11th (local time), Cho Hyun-dong, South Korea's ambassador to the U.S., said at the National Assembly Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee's audit, "It is true that skepticism about the possibility of denuclearization has increased as North Korea's nuclear capabilities have grown." The removal of 'denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula' from both the Democratic and Republican party platforms has also heightened concerns in this context.

The Biden administration is focusing on securing strong deterrence against North Korea based on cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan. However, it has long been pointed out that the North Korean nuclear issue has fallen off the U.S. priority list in reality. Given that the U.S. is concentrating defense spending on the Ukraine war and the Middle East, expending new energy on North Korea, where denuclearization seems unlikely, is burdensome.

Diplomatic circles predict that after the U.S. presidential election, the issue of 'recognizing North Korea as a nuclear state' will become a hot topic. Moon Il-hyun, a professor at China’s Zhengfa University, recently said at a forum in Beijing, "I assure you that whether North Korea will be effectively recognized as a nuclear state will be the hottest issue after the U.S. presidential election."

Former President Trump is confident about negotiations with North Korea, but it is uncertain whether North Korea will accept his hand. The turning point when North Korea returned to a hardline stance was the failed North Korea-U.S. summit in February 2019, the so-called 'Hanoi no deal.' North Korea’s close alignment with Russia, including dispatching special forces, makes bringing them to the negotiating table a matter of a different dimension than before.

Whichever side it is, North Korea may try to gain the upper hand by using the '7th nuclear test' card. The National Intelligence Service recently reported to the National Assembly Intelligence Committee that the expected timing of North Korea’s additional nuclear test is now assessed as 'after the election' rather than before. If a nuclear test leads to the table North Korea desires, it is expected to demand recognition as a nuclear state.

Strong China Policy Regardless of Winner, South Korea-China Relations on the Test Bench

In November 2022, President Yoon Suk-yeol and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands at the Korea-China summit held in Bali, Indonesia. [Image source=Yonhap News]

Although the degree varies, both candidates propose tough policies toward China. Regardless of who takes office, protectionist trade barriers are expected to rise, and U.S.-China conflicts will intensify accordingly.

For South Korea, China is an indispensable partner from economic to security aspects. China is a card that can directly influence North Korea. There is analysis that China, which keeps some distance from the North Korea-China-Russia triangle, should be drawn closer.

Professor Min Jeong-hoon of the North America and Europe Research Department at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy analyzed the Democratic Party’s platform and predicted that Vice President Harris, who will inherit Biden’s policies, will demand a greater role from South Korea based on the principles of 'China containment' and 'emphasis on alliances.' The Biden administration responded to China’s unfair trade practices by imposing differential tariffs on semiconductors, batteries, and steel, and restricted exports of advanced technologies.

Professor Min said, "The Harris administration will solidify the South Korea-U.S. alliance and seek to deepen cooperation with South Korea across all fields." He added, "South Korea is likely to be more broadly included in the U.S. interests of 'China containment' in the Indo-Pacific region. Therefore, managing South Korea-China relations, especially in diplomacy, security, and advanced technology sectors, will be a key task."

The Yoon Suk-yeol administration aims to strengthen the South Korea-U.S. alliance while maintaining friendly relations with China. This year, high-level exchanges have expanded, and whether this friendly trend will culminate in a summit is a key issue. There is already mutual understanding to use the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in the second half of the year as an opportunity.

Government Prepares for 'Uncertainty'... Reviewing Various Scenarios

In September, a live broadcast of the U.S. presidential candidate TV debate between U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and former U.S. President Donald Trump was shown on a television installed in the Seoul Station waiting room. [Image source=Yonhap News]

In diplomatic circles, it is widely expected that if Vice President Harris wins, South Korea’s diplomatic and security strategy will largely maintain the status quo, whereas if former President Trump returns to power, the U.S. security umbrella may weaken. Nevertheless, the government believes that achievements reflecting U.S. needs, such as the 'Camp David' agreement, will be maintained.

Especially in preparation for the highly uncertain 'Trump second term,' various response strategies are being discussed. Kim Tae-hyo, First Deputy Director of the National Security Office, said at the first Sejong Open Forum last month, "If Trump is elected, crisis and opportunity factors will coexist extremely, so bold and sophisticated strategies are needed," citing defense exports as an 'opportunity factor.'

As U.S. defense spending increases due to competition with China, the Ukraine war, and the Middle East situation, the possibility of South Korean defense companies entering the U.S. market grows. He said, "Especially in ship repair and maintenance, South Korea excels, so the U.S. strongly wants our help." It is also worth watching whether this strategy will develop into arms exports or military support for Ukraine, linked with North Korea’s dispatch of troops to Russia.

Preparing for how North Korea will respond depending on the U.S. election result is also a challenge. This year, North Korea has been thoroughly attempting to divide by ignoring South Korea and directly engaging the U.S. with its 'Tongmi Bongnam' (communicating with the U.S., blocking South Korea) policy. A representative indicator is the absence of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) provocations targeting the U.S. mainland since December last year. Recently, North Korea only notified the United Nations Command, which it defines as 'the U.S.,' about its 'fortification' construction.

A government official said, "Even if Trump returns to power, given the experience of the 'Hanoi no deal,' neither side is expected to negotiate in the same way as before." He added, "Since the defense cost-sharing negotiations were concluded early, preparations for uncertainty are also sufficient."