[Global Focus] "Population Winter is Coming"... A World Where Baby Cries Have Stopped

Global Birth Rate 2.3... "Population Decline Within 40 Years"
All Remedies Ineffective... Population Decreased Despite 5% GDP Investment
"Childbirth Is a Matter of Preference"

As birth rates decline worldwide, countries are providing astronomical amounts of support, but the effects have been limited. Even countries once praised for solving low birthrate issues are now experiencing a decrease in the sound of baby cries.

Global market research firm Statista estimated the total fertility rate (TFR) in 2023 to be 2.3. Soon, if it falls below 2.2, maintaining the current population level will become impossible, and a decline will begin. The total fertility rate refers to the expected number of children a woman will have in her lifetime. Demographers consider that to maintain the current population size, the global TFR should be 2.2, and for developed countries, 2.1. Looking only at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the TFR was 1.5 in 2022. Most developed countries have already fallen below 2.1 since the 1970s. Some speculate that the world population will start to decline within 40 years.

Jes?s Fern?ndez-Villaverde, a demographic economics expert at the University of Pennsylvania, said, "A demographic winter is approaching."

EU Population to Decrease by 10% by 2050... Developing Countries Also Struggling

According to the United Nations (UN), the European population has shifted to a decline after the COVID-19 pandemic and is expected to decrease by nearly 40 million by around 2050 compared to now. As of January this year, the European Union (EU) population was approximately 449.2 million, meaning a 10% decrease in population.

The United States is no exception. One of the key issues in the U.S. presidential election held on November 5 (local time) is the declining birthrate. Although the U.S. has relatively higher birthrates among developed countries, it is also facing a decline. Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump proposed a ‘child bonus’ and support for in vitro fertilization costs, while Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris suggested a $6,000 (about 8.28 million KRW) child tax credit. During this process, Republican vice-presidential candidate Senator J.D. Vance’s 2021 Fox News interview remark attacking Vice President Harris by saying, "Childless cat ladies are running the country and trying to make America as miserable as their own lives," was reexamined and criticized.

According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the U.S. total fertility rate last year was 1.62, marking a historic low. Although this is much higher than South Korea’s last-place global rate of 0.72 last year, it falls far short of the 2.1?2.2 needed for population replacement.

Recently, not only developed countries but also developing countries are experiencing fewer baby cries. China, which once strongly limited births through its ‘one-child policy,’ abolished the policy in the 2010s but still struggles with population issues. The number of newborns has fallen below 10 million for two consecutive years, and the estimated TFR last year was 1.0. India, which surpassed China as the world’s most populous country, also dropped to 2.1 last year. Russian President Vladimir Putin declared this year the ‘Year of the Family’ and has promoted childbirth incentives.

Even Hungary and Norway, Countries That Attracted Global Attention, Have Declined

Countries once considered ‘model cases’ for low birthrate policies are now deeply concerned as birthrates decline again. A representative example is Hungary. Hungary’s birthrate plummeted after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and in 2010, the total fertility rate dropped to 1.25 per woman. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orb?n actively supports family policies, spending more than 5% of GDP. Families with three or more children can receive loans of up to $150,000, and women with four or more children are exempt from personal income tax for life, among other extraordinary benefits. As a result, the TFR rose to 1.6 in 2021, and the Hungarian model has attracted attention in South Korean political circles. However, the birthrate, which had rebounded recently, is declining again. It fell to 1.5 last year after two consecutive years of decline in 2022 and 2023. From January to August this year, the number of births decreased by 10% compared to the same period last year. There are criticisms that support is going to those who would have formed large families anyway, leading to budget waste.

There is also analysis that Hungary’s birthrate rebound was due more to external factors than government policy effects. The Vienna Institute of Demography stated that the debt crisis around 2010 caused Hungarian women to postpone childbirth. Adjusting for this, despite generous support, the actual increase was only slight.

Norway, known as a welfare state, also spent more than 3% of GDP to raise birthrates but has struggled to solve the problem. New parents are allowed to share about a year of fully paid leave, and husbands are required to take 15 weeks of parental leave to reduce the childcare burden on women. However, the total fertility rate has steadily declined from 2.0 in 2009 to just 1.4.

Kjersti Toppe, Norway’s Minister of Children and Families, told the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), "It is difficult to understand why people are having fewer children," adding that the government is increasing parental benefits and forming committees to find ways to reverse the decline in births.

"The Problem Is Not Money but ‘Time’" ... "Culture Has Changed"

Japan has long been a country addressing low birthrate issues. Kuniko Inoguchi, Japan’s first Minister in charge of Low Birthrate and Gender Equality, says the biggest obstacle to childbirth is time and urges the government and companies to adopt a four-day workweek. When Inoguchi was appointed in 2005, she identified money as the biggest barrier and introduced free obstetric care and child allowances, but Japan’s birthrate rose to 1.45 in 2015 before declining again.

The WSJ reported, "Many people with many children often say they would have children even without benefits," while "those who do not have children say the benefits do not make enough difference (to have children)."

Experts fundamentally believe that cultural changes have made parents reluctant to have children. In the past, it was natural to start a family and have children upon reaching adulthood, but now many prioritize personal life over having children. Additionally, the rapid increase in housing costs worldwide and the longer time required to find stable employment are also considered influential factors.

Foreign Tan, a senior researcher at the Singapore Policy Studies Institute, pointed out that children used to provide direct economic value as labor and old-age support, but now they no longer serve that role. They have become a kind of luxury good rather than a necessity. Tan said, "Having children has become a matter of pure joy and preference that requires sacrificing leisure and career advancement."