155mm Shells? Government Faces Deepening Dilemma Over Support for Ukraine [Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club]

Security Threat When Supporting Russian Advanced Military Technology
Concerns Over Production Volume When Supporting Ukraine's Shortage Ammunition

The government is facing a dilemma over support measures for Ukraine. With North Korea deciding to send a large-scale ground force to Russia, the possibility of our government supporting Ukraine, like the United States and other Western countries, has increased. Providing lethal weapons such as artillery shells is also being considered. However, there is considerable caution within the government because supporting Ukraine with lethal weapons could lead to a breakdown in relations with Russia.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 21st, a government official said, “Regarding North Korea’s decision to dispatch troops to the Ukraine war, we will respond by mobilizing all available means jointly with the international community, but we need to observe the domestic and international situation more closely before deciding on specific support.”

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the government has supported Ukraine with non-lethal military supplies such as gas masks and medicines. However, it is judged that if Russia, a military power, provides North Korea with advanced military technologies such as nuclear weapons, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and satellites, it could pose a significant threat to our security. This is why the government is considering providing lethal weapons.

If lethal weapons are provided, 155mm artillery shells would be the top priority. Ukraine consumes over one million 155mm shells annually in the war and is facing a severe shortage. Last year, the United States also requested our country to provide 155mm shells indirectly. In response to the U.S. request, our military provided the United States with 555,000 155mm shells as part of the War Reserve Stockpile of Ammunition-Korea (WRSA-K). WRSA-K refers to ammunition brought to Korea by the U.S. from 1974 over five years to prepare for wartime situations on the Korean Peninsula.

There are problems even with indirect provision of shells. Our military’s stockpile is insufficient immediately. According to the Joint Strategic Operational Plan (JSOP), only 63% of the 155mm base bleed high-explosive shells (BB) needed for a 30-day war are secured. If the war continues for 45 days, it is calculated that only about 54%, or half, of the required amount is available. For the 155mm high-explosive shells held by the Marine Corps, the shells available for 30 days of wartime use account for only 21.3% of the required amount.

Suddenly increasing production is also not possible. This is because domestic defense industry companies have production limits. Poongsan is the only defense company producing 155mm shells. To increase annual production from 76,000 to 100,000 shells, production facilities need to be expanded, which requires time. Even if additional support of 239mm dispersed guided munitions is considered along with 155mm shells, Korea Defense Industry (KDI), which produces these, can only manufacture about 120 units over two years.

Relations with Russia are also a concern. Therefore, rather than immediately deciding to provide lethal weapons, the government may strongly condemn North Korea’s troop dispatch decision in coordination with the United States, Japan, and others, and consider independent and joint sanctions measures. A government official predicted that since Russia is a permanent member of the United Nations (UN) Security Council with veto power, it is more likely that a statement will be issued among like-minded countries rather than at the UN Security Council level.