Restraint in Reservist Mobilization Order Considering Russian Domestic Opinion
Displaying Blood Alliance Relationship Sufficiently with Only North Korea's Troop Deployment
North Korea has decided to deploy a large-scale special forces unit to the Ukraine war to assist Russia. This is the first large-scale deployment of North Korean ground forces, and it is expected to have significant repercussions on the security landscape not only on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia but worldwide. In particular, attention is focused on how this large-scale deployment will affect the Ukraine war.
The National Intelligence Service (NIS) stated, "From the 8th to the 13th, we detected North Korean special forces being transported to Russian territory via Russian Navy transport ships," confirming "the commencement of North Korean military participation." The first deployment consists of 1,500 personnel, and North Korea is expected to send a total force of about 12,000 troops from four brigades belonging to the elite 11th Corps, also known as the Storm Corps, to the Ukraine war.
The first group of troops has already moved to Vladivostok, Russia, using four landing ships and three escort ships of the Russian Pacific Fleet from areas near Chongjin, Hamhung, and Musudan. The NIS anticipates a second transport operation soon.
The North Korean troops deployed to Russia are currently dispersed and stationed at Russian military units in East Asian regions such as Vladivostok, Ussuriysk, Khabarovsk, and Blagoveshchensk. They are expected to be deployed to the front lines once they complete acclimatization training. They have been issued Russian military uniforms and Russian-made weapons, and the NIS reported that they were also given fake IDs disguising them as residents of Siberian Yakutia and Buryatia regions, whose appearance is similar to North Koreans. This appears to be an effort to conceal their participation by disguising them as Russian soldiers.
US: North Korean Deployment Shows Russia’s Desperation
The United States evaluated this development as a sign that Russia has become "desperate." Matthew Miller, spokesperson for the US State Department, said during a briefing on the 15th (local time) regarding reports from Ukrainian media about the deployment, "If the reports are true, it means that the relationship between North Korea and Russia has significantly advanced," emphasizing, "This report shows that Russia, which continues to suffer severe casualties, is in a new level of desperation."
After invading Ukraine in February 2022, Putin issued a partial mobilization order in September of the same year, conscripting 300,000 reservists. Since then, no additional mobilization orders have been issued. Despite the severe manpower depletion as the Ukraine war drags on, Russia has refrained from forced conscription as much as possible to avoid stirring anti-war sentiment within the country.
Will North Korea Become the First Combat Troop Deploying Country in the Ukraine War?
In this context, North Korea’s deployment significantly aids Russia. If the deployment is confirmed, North Korea will become the first country to send combat troops to the Russia-Ukraine war despite not being a direct party to the conflict. North Korea has deployed troops in the past as well. During the Vietnam War, it sent fighter pilots and psychological warfare units. The psychological warfare units encouraged defection or interrogated prisoners of war against South Korean forces deployed in South Vietnam.
At the invitation of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, North Korean military instructors were active in Libya. About 50 military instructors stayed in Uganda, Africa, and around 30 instructors were dispatched to the Democratic Republic of Congo (formerly Zaire), conducting training for presidential security special forces. During the Syrian civil war in 2016, missile technicians and two small combat units were dispatched to fight for the Bashar al-Assad regime.
This current deployment is the largest ever, mostly consisting of combat troops. Following the restoration of the "mutual military assistance" clause in a treaty signed during the Pyongyang summit between Chairman Kim Jong-un and President Vladimir Putin in June, North Korea has begun full-scale deployment of soldiers and weapons to Russia.
Communication Issues When Joining Russian Forces
How the troops will be deployed remains uncertain. They may be integrated with Russian forces and assigned to the front lines or be responsible for specific regions. It is highly likely they will join Russian forces. The NIS confirmed that North Korean troops have already been issued Russian military uniforms and Russian-made weapons to prevent identity exposure to the international community. During the Vietnam War, fighter pilots dispatched by North Korea wore North Vietnamese Army uniforms and fought against US Air Force fighters. However, communication with Russian forces is a problem. On the front lines, where split-second life-or-death decisions are required, it is a challenging task for North Korean and Russian troops, who speak completely different languages, to communicate effectively. Additionally, the North Korean military system is known to be modeled after the former Soviet Union. It remains uncertain whether North Korean soldiers can organically adapt to the Russian military’s weapon systems in actual combat.
They May Gain Combat Experience, but Impact on the War is Uncertain
There are advantages as well. This provides an opportunity to gain real combat experience with short-range ballistic missiles like the ‘KN-23’ (North Korea’s version of the Iskander) exported to Russia, as well as drone operations in modern warfare.
If deployed to a specific region, independent operations under Russian command control are also possible. Although it would be difficult to conceal their participation, this scenario is quite feasible. The Kursk region in Russia is a likely candidate for their area of responsibility. Since August, Ukrainian forces have been advancing and launching attacks in the Kursk region.
Ukrainian intelligence expects thousands of North Korean troops to be deployed to Kursk on Russian soil starting next month. Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry Intelligence Directorate, told the US military media The War Zone (TWZ) on the 17th (local time), "They will be ready by November 1," and said that an advance group of 2,600 personnel will go to Kursk next month.
John Foreman, a former military attach? at the British Embassy in Russia, pointed out, "From Russia’s perspective, the number of ‘cannon fodder’ available for the front lines has increased," adding, "No one in Russia cares if foreigners die."
Some speculate that North Korean troops may not actually engage in combat with Ukrainian forces. Valeriy Liabyk, editor-in-chief of a Ukrainian military journal, predicted, "North Korean troops may be assigned to guard parts of the Russia-Ukraine border, allowing Russian troops already deployed there to move to the front lines." There is also analysis suggesting that North Korean troops might be tasked with support roles such as construction and maintenance rather than combat.
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