10·16 By-Elections... Ruling and Opposition Parties Focus on 'Busan Geumjeong and Jeonnam Yeonggwang'

Handonghun Stakes Life on Geumjeong... Pressure to Resign Increases if Defeated
Democratic Party and Joguk Innovation Party Fiercely Compete for Honam Leadership

The voting for the October 16 by-elections, which will serve as a 'barometer of public sentiment' following the general election, has begun. Attention is focused on the results of the Busan Geumjeong District Mayor and Jeonnam Yeonggwang County Governor elections, which are considered key battlegrounds by both ruling and opposition parties. These areas are traditional strongholds of both parties. Failure to hold these seats would inevitably deal a blow to the leadership of Han Dong-hoon of the People Power Party and Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party.

It is expected to influence not only the future party leadership structure but also the political dominance related to major issues such as the 'Kim Geon-hee special investigation' and Lee's 'judicial risks.' The opposition has framed it as a 'judgment on the regime,' while the ruling party has expanded the stakes by calling it an election to secure new momentum for national governance.

People Power Party Faces Intensified Pressure for 'Ruling Party Split and Leader Resignation' if Defeated in Busan Geumjeong

Leader Han is pinning his hopes on the by-elections for Incheon Ganghwa County Governor and Busan Geumjeong District Mayor, traditional strongholds. In the rural Ganghwa County, candidates affiliated with the People Power Party have won 7 out of 9 county governor elections (including by-elections) historically. Han appears to be pouring all his efforts into the Busan Geumjeong District Mayor by-election. Following candidate unification, public opinion worsened due to allegations of Kim Geon-hee's interference in candidate nominations, sparked by the incident involving former Presidential Office Citizen Communication Secretary Acting Director Kim Dae-nam and Myung Tae-kyun. There is a growing sense of crisis that 'we might lose in our stronghold.'

Some polls have shown candidate Yoon trailing Democratic candidate Kim Kyung-ji within the margin of error. According to a survey conducted by Every Research commissioned jointly by News Spirit and Every News on the 6th and 7th, targeting 500 men and women aged 18 and over residing in Busan Geumjeong District (wireless ARS automated response survey, with a sampling error of ±4.4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, and a response rate of 5.3%), Kim received 45.8% support while Yoon received 42.3%.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

As Busan Geumjeong District, where Leaders Han, Lee Jae-myung, and Cho Kuk of the Innovation Party have campaigned directly, has emerged as a battlefield for party leaders, a loss for the People Power Party would likely narrow Han's political standing. In political circles, given Han's relentless criticism of Kim Geon-hee and President Yoon, there may be calls for his resignation, especially from the pro-Yoon faction. Earlier, on the 9th, Han requested Kim Geon-hee to refrain from public activities during a press meeting at Yoon's campaign office, and on the 12th and 14th at campaign rallies in Busan Geumjeong, he sharply criticized the close-knit group around Kim, known as the 'Hannam-dong line,' calling for a personnel overhaul in the Presidential Office.

Democratic Party and Innovation Party Compete for Honam Leadership in Yeonggwang

The opposition is showing a three-way contest in the Jeonnam Yeonggwang and Gokseong County Governor elections, vying for 'Honam leadership.' The Democratic Party believes it must hold onto these two Jeonnam regions even if it loses Busan Geumjeong. Losing even one of Yeonggwang or Gokseong could significantly erode public support for the Democratic Party. From the Democratic Party's perspective, even if they win in Busan Geumjeong, losing the Honam stronghold would inevitably damage Lee Jae-myung's leadership.

The Democratic Party is concerned that the momentum of the Innovation Party and the Progressive Party will not wane until the end of the election. In the April 10 general election, the Democratic Party confirmed public sentiment after being outperformed by the Innovation Party in the proportional representation vote in the Gwangju and Jeonnam regions. The best-case scenario for the Democratic Party is to win both regions; the second-best is to lose to the Progressive Party in Yeonggwang but defeat the Innovation Party candidate. If the Innovation Party wins the Yeonggwang County Governor election, it could expand its voice within the opposition based on the Honam region.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Political commentator Park Sang-byeong said in a phone interview, "The Innovation Party has a structure that makes it difficult to compete with the Democratic Party and People Power Party in the metropolitan area. It needs to establish a party base in one of Gyeongnam, Busan, or Honam," adding, "If it wins in this Jeonnam by-election, it will be an opportunity to raise not only Leader Cho Kuk's profile but also the party's value."

Indeed, previous polls have shown a situation where predicting the election outcome is difficult. According to a Realmeter survey commissioned by Namdo Ilbo conducted on the 7th and 8th among 502 men and women aged 18 and over in Yeonggwang County, Progressive Party candidate Lee Seok-ha received 35.0%, Democratic Party candidate Jang Se-il 33.4%, and Innovation Party candidate Jang Hyun 27.4%, showing a very close race. Detailed information on the two cited polls can be found on the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

Judgments within the opposition regarding the Jeonnam Gokseong County Governor election vary slightly. The Democratic Party views Gokseong as the region with the highest chance of victory. In contrast, the Innovation Party considers Gokseong a must-win battleground. Since the Progressive Party candidate has surged in Yeonggwang, securing the position of 'second opposition party' requires holding Gokseong. The Innovation Party leadership has devoted considerable effort to winning this by-election, and losing both Jeonnam regions could drastically shrink its standing within the opposition. Innovation Party floor leader Hwang Un-ha appealed repeatedly, saying, "I believe the Innovation Party will inherit the legacy to stand as Honam's second son," urging support.

[Image source=Yonhap News]