Trump Wins 4, Draws 2, and Loses 1 in 7 Battleground States
Former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate in the United States, is showing an advantage over Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris in seven key battleground states that are expected to decide the outcome of the presidential election, according to a poll released on the 10th (local time).
According to a poll conducted by political media outlet The Hill and Emerson College from the 5th to the 8th among likely voters in seven battleground states, former President Trump received 49% in Arizona, leading Vice President Kamala Harris (47%) by 2 percentage points.
Former President Trump also held a 1 percentage point lead over Vice President Harris in Georgia (49%), North Carolina (49%), and Pennsylvania (49%). In Michigan and Wisconsin, both candidates were tied at 49%, while in Nevada, Vice President Harris led former President Trump 48% to 47%.
Former President Trump leads Vice President Harris in the seven battleground states with 4 wins, 2 ties, and 1 loss. However, since the margin between the two candidates' support rates is within the margin of error, it is still difficult to predict the outcome of the presidential race. The poll sample sizes for the seven battleground statesare 1,000 each (margin of error ±3.0%P) for Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; 950 (margin of error ±3.1%P) for Michigan; and 900 (margin of error ±3.2%P) for Nevada.
However, looking at past polls from the same polling organization, former President Trump appears to be gaining momentum as the election day approaches. In The Hill and Emerson College's August poll, former President Trump was tied with Vice President Harris with 3 wins, 1 tie, and 3 losses, but in the September poll, Trump slightly led with 4 wins, 1 tie, and 2 losses, and in the October poll, he showed better support with 4 wins, 2 ties, and 1 loss.
Notably, former President Trump has traditionally been strong in the Southern Sun Belt states (Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona), while Vice President Harris has shown strength in the Rust Belt, the declining industrial region around the Great Lakes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin). However, this poll shows former President Trump leading not only in the three Sun Belt states but also in Pennsylvania, which holds the largest number of 19 electoral votes in the Rust Belt.
In contrast to the battleground state polls, a national poll conducted by the British news weekly The Economist and polling firm YouGov from the 6th to 7th among registered U.S. voters (margin of error ±3.0%P) showed Vice President Harris leading former President Trump with 47% support to 44%.
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