North Korea Releases Trash Balloons Ahead of Supreme People's Assembly [Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club]

Expected Deletion of Unification-Related Provisions in the People's Assembly

North Korea floated an object presumed to be a South Korea-bound trash balloon ahead of the Supreme People's Assembly on the 7th.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the same day, the Joint Chiefs of Staff stated, "Considering the wind direction, the balloon may move to Gyeonggi Province and the Seoul metropolitan area," urging caution regarding falling payloads and advising not to touch fallen balloons but to report them to the military or police. North Korea launched the balloon three days after the last one on the 4th. This marks the 25th time this year that North Korea has sent balloons southward.

It is anticipated that North Korea will institutionalize the 'hostile two-state theory' at the Supreme People's Assembly on the 7th by deleting unification-related provisions from the constitution and introducing territorial regulations such as a 'maritime border line.' They may also add provisions regarding territory, territorial waters, and airspace to the constitution. In particular, there is speculation that North Korea may deny the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea and assert their self-declared 'maritime border line.' This could increase the risk of military clashes between the South and North near the NLL, once known as the 'powder keg of the Korean Peninsula.'

To support the hostile two-state theory and the establishment of a maritime border line, North Korea may also annul the South-North Basic Agreement signed in December 1991. This agreement was the first document to define the South and North as a 'special relationship aiming for unification.' It also included provisions that neither side would engage in slander, defamation, or acts aimed at destroying or overthrowing the other. The agreement contains a clause regarding the maritime boundary line stating, "Until a maritime non-aggression boundary line is established, both sides shall maintain the areas they have administered so far." Because of this, North Korea was considered to have tacitly recognized the NLL.

Meanwhile, President Yoon Suk-yeol said in an interview with foreign media regarding North Korea's trash balloon provocations, "If harm to the safety of our people occurs, North Korea will face responses that are difficult to endure." This is interpreted as implying that 'military measures' could be considered if serious harm arises from the balloons.

However, the South Korean government and military still adhere to the principle of not attempting to shoot down the trash balloons in the air but waiting until they fall to the ground to collect them.