[Report] "Economy is Trump" vs "Abortion Rights and the Vulnerable for Harris"... Visiting the Divided US Election Battleground Pennsylvania

[2024 US Presidential Election]①
Trump vs. Harris in a Neck-and-Neck Race
Winning Pennsylvania Key to White House Bid
19 Electors Make It the Largest Battleground State
Trump Supporters Back Economic and Immigration Policies
Harris Supporters Vote for Reproductive Rights and Protection of the Vulnerable
Economy the Biggest Election Issue... Unity of Shy Trump Voters Crucial

"Trump will restore the U.S. economy to prosperity. I don't trust the polls. There is a silent majority supporting Trump."

"The next president should obviously be Harris. She guarantees reproductive rights (abortion rights) and supports the middle class. There is no other choice."

On the 27th of last month (local time), about a month before the U.S. presidential election, I visited Philadelphia City Hall in Pennsylvania. As early voting began ahead of the November 5 election, voters came to the city hall despite the drizzly, gloomy weather. Amid unprecedented interest in this election, both the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris’s campaign staff and the Republican candidate Donald Trump’s campaign staff were encouraging voters to participate in the election in front of City Hall.

Ahead of the U.S. presidential election on November 5, on October 27 (local time), staff from the Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris's campaign encouraged voters in front of Philadelphia City Hall, where early voting booths were set up. Philadelphia=Photo by Kwon Haeyoung

Winning Pennsylvania Means Going to the White House... 19 Electoral Votes, the Largest Among Swing States

Pennsylvania is considered the biggest battleground among swing states that will decide the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. The U.S. presidential election is decided not by the total popular vote but by the number of electoral votes secured based on each state's election results. Out of a total of 538 electoral votes, the candidate who secures the majority 'magic number' of 270 wins. Since most states have clearly defined party preferences, the election is usually decided in seven swing states. Among the swing states, the Rust Belt (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan), a declining industrial region, was traditionally a Democratic stronghold known as the 'Blue Wall' due to its pro-union stance, but support for Trump has increased among white male workers. The Sun Belt in the South (Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina) was a Republican stronghold but has recently seen rising Democratic support. Therefore, who wins Pennsylvania, which has the largest number of electoral votes among swing states at 19, will determine the path to the White House.

The voter sentiment in Pennsylvania remains uncertain. The large cities in the east, Philadelphia, and in the west, Pittsburgh, tend to strongly support the Democratic Party. In contrast, suburban and rural areas between these two cities show prominent Republican support. Pennsylvania voted for Republican candidate Trump in 2016 and then for Democratic candidate Joe Biden in 2020, and the candidate who won this region entered the White House. This is why the saying "He who laughs last in Pennsylvania laughs best" exists. During the visit to Philadelphia City Hall, the streets, and the University of Pennsylvania (UPenn), most Black and young voters supported Vice President Harris. Particularly, strong cohesion among Black voters in support of Harris was confirmed. A common denominator was the importance placed on women's abortion rights and human rights issues. On the other hand, supporters of former President Trump cited economic and immigration issues as their main reasons for support.

"Support for Trump's Economic and Immigration Policies" vs. "Harris Guarantees Reproductive Rights and Protects the Vulnerable"

A white woman in her 60s met in front of Pennsylvania City Hall introduced herself as a supporter of former President Trump and said, "The most important issue in this election is the economy," adding, "Inflation is falling, but prices have already risen as much as they can, and many people are suffering because of this." She continued, "The Biden-Harris administration has failed in the economy," and raised her voice, saying, "Trump will restore the U.S. economy to its rightful place." When asked if she could provide her name and allow a photo, she said, "Sorry," and hurriedly left, saying, "Most of my friends and I are silent Trump supporters."

Molly, a Black woman in her 30s, came directly to City Hall to cast her early vote for Vice President Harris. When asked why she supports Harris, she emphasized, "If Harris is elected, she will be the second Black president and the first Black woman president in U.S. history," adding, "Harris has a minority background and will protect the rights of the vulnerable."

On November 5, ahead of the U.S. presidential election, a voter who finished voting on October 27 (local time) is taking a photo at the early voting site set up at Philadelphia City Hall. Philadelphia=Photo by Kwon Haeyoung

On the 27th of last month (local time), college students met at the University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) expressed their support for Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and took photos together. Philadelphia - Photo by Kwon Haeyoung

At the UPenn campus, about a 10-minute drive from Philadelphia City Hall, most of the college students met were also supporters of Vice President Harris. Sonia, a freshman voting in a presidential election for the first time this year, said, "Harris guarantees women's reproductive rights and has pledged affordable healthcare," and added, "She promised an economy of opportunity for the middle class" as her reason for support. She also said, "As an Asian-Black woman, she symbolizes the American value of respecting diversity," and added, "If Trump is elected, democracy will regress. Harris is a much safer choice."

Among about ten students met on campus that day, only one supported former President Trump. A graduate student A, met during class with the help of an assistant professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, said, "Too many illegal immigrants are entering the U.S.," and pointed out, "Americans spend astronomical taxes supporting them, but all we get in return is increasing crime." When asked about Trump's announced 'bomb tariff' policy, he explained, "There may be some side effects like inflation, but tariffs that are significantly lower depending on the counterpart country should be raised to resolve the distorted trade structure."

On the 27th of last month (local time), students at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) explained their preferred presidential candidates and reasons for support before the class started. Philadelphia - Photo by Kwon Haeyoung

Economic Issues Expected to Dominate Until Election... 'Shy Trump' Cohesion Also Key

With the election just a month away, Vice President Harris and former President Trump are engaged in a neck-and-neck race. According to an analysis by U.S. political media The Hill and election specialist site Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) as of the 4th, Vice President Harris led former President Trump by 3.4 percentage points in nationwide support. However, in the seven swing states, Harris showed an advantage in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Trump led in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. The support gap in each swing state ranged from 0.2 to 2 percentage points, within the margin of error, indicating a very tight race where it is difficult to determine a clear winner.

Both candidates are pouring election funds into swing states and focusing their efforts on securing voter support. Former President Trump visited Butler, Pennsylvania, with billionaire Elon Musk, Tesla CEO, the day before. He appealed for voter support, saying, "If we win Pennsylvania, we will win everything," at the place where he narrowly escaped his first assassination attempt in July. In Philadelphia, visited by the reporter, Trump’s advertisements were noticeably more visible in many parts of the city, possibly due to the strong Democratic support within Pennsylvania. Vice President Harris will visit Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on the 10th with former President Barack Obama.

On the 27th of last month (local time), an outdoor advertisement for former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, appeared on a building in downtown Philadelphia. The billboard prominently displays the phrase "Bringing Jobs To Pennsylvania!" Photo by Kwon Haeyoung, Philadelphia correspondent.

The key issues are the 'economy'?which becomes more prominent as the election approaches?and whether the 'shy Trump' voters will unite. Among American voters, the evaluation "The economy is Trump" is prevalent. In Pennsylvania, the biggest battleground, the population aged 65 and older and the white population, who tend to support former President Trump, are the largest among swing states, which is also a variable. Although not captured in polls, there is a possibility of a 'shy Trump' phenomenon where Trump gains 2-3 percentage points more votes in the actual election. The worsening Middle East war and hurricane disaster response could also be negative factors for the Democrats.

Kim Dong-seok, head of the Korean American Voter Coalition (KAGC), said, "As the election approaches, voters tend to focus on economic issues. Especially in Pennsylvania, which holds the key to the presidential election, economic issues are the most important among swing states due to controversies such as fracking and the sale of US Steel," adding, "Although Harris leads in the polls, the gap is narrow, and Trump, who is strong on the economy, could concentrate his efforts in the remaining month and surge ahead. Therefore, this election is expected to be an extremely close race with no clear outcome until the very end."