Israel Warns of "Iran's Big Mistake," May Retaliate Against Nuclear Facilities

Israel has immediately threatened retaliatory strikes against Iran, which launched a large-scale missile attack targeting Israel, drawing attention to possible future scenarios. While Israel's response was limited when it was attacked in April, experts now assess that Israel may significantly escalate its retaliatory attacks this time. Among experts, there are even concerns that Israel might attack Iran's nuclear facilities.

[Image source= Xinhua News Agency]

The New York Times (NYT) reported on the 1st (local time), citing security experts and former officials, that Israel is now able to respond more freely and forcefully than before. Previously, in response to Iran's airstrike in April, Israel attacked the Isfahan military base with missiles and drones but did not target nuclear facilities. This was due to concerns that Hezbollah, Iran's proxy and a state actor in Lebanon, might launch attacks in retaliation.

However, according to the media outlet, the situation has become much more favorable for Israel in just a few months. The NYT evaluated, "Hezbollah's power has weakened after the bombing operation that killed Hezbollah leaders last week and the ground operation carried out that day," adding, "Most of Iran's deterrence has been removed." Former Israeli intelligence officer Danny Citrinowitz said, "Israel now has much freer control over Iran than in April," explaining, "Because the threat of Hezbollah joining is no longer present."

Pressure from the West, including the United States, which previously urged Israel to exercise restraint in its response, is also expected to decrease this time. The U.S. presidential election is just around the corner in November. Citrinowitz predicted, "U.S. officials may still call for restraint, but their influence will be less than it was in April."

Accordingly, there is analysis suggesting that Israel, which is deeply concerned about Iran possessing nuclear weapons, might seize this opportunity to increase the intensity of its attacks and target nuclear facilities. Iran is known to be producing uranium convertible for nuclear weapons manufacturing in Natanz, located in the northern part of Isfahan Province.

Yaakov Amidror, a former Israeli National Security Advisor, argued that attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities should be considered. Naftali Bennett, a former Israeli Prime Minister, also posted on his social media, stating that Israel must "immediately destroy the nuclear project, collapse key energy facilities, and deliver a fatal blow to the terrorist regime," adding, "The octopus's tentacles (proxies) have been severely wounded. Now is the time to target the head."

CNN also predicted that Israel would escalate the level of its retaliatory attacks against Iran in the future. The outlet particularly noted that the scale of Iran's attack this time was twice that of April and that there was little prior warning to neighboring countries. Unlike last April, when Iran launched 185 drones, 36 cruise missiles, and 110 surface-to-surface missiles at Israel, this time approximately 180 ballistic missiles were fired. Additionally, foreign media, citing local sources, reported that Iran used its domestically produced 'Fattah-1 supersonic missile' for the first time in this airstrike.

The Guardian also mentioned that Iran's attack was twice the scale of April's and included densely populated urban areas as targets, reporting that Israeli officials regarded this as a declaration of war by Iran. Earlier, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a security meeting that night, belittling Iran's attack as a failure but warning, "Iran made a big mistake tonight and will pay the price for it."

CNN reported, "Statements from Israeli officials on this day suggest that the next response could be stronger," adding, "The international community is concerned that Israel might decide to attack some of Iran's nuclear facilities." The outlet further noted, "Israel did not make such a decision in April due to concerns about Hezbollah's movements," and "Now that Hezbollah leaders have died, this factor will be less considered in Israel's calculations."

U.S. President Joe Biden, reaffirming support for Israel, said on the same day, "(Iran's) attack was repelled and appears to have been ineffective," and that he would speak with Prime Minister Netanyahu. Citrinowitz assessed, "Tensions are escalating in a way that makes the end difficult to predict," adding, "Israel's response will trigger another Iranian response."