US Presidential Election Forecasts a Nail-Biter... "Could Be the Closest Race Since 1876"

There is a forecast that the upcoming U.S. presidential election in November could be the closest race since 1876.

On the 25th (local time), ABC News reported, based on the analysis from its political analysis site '538,' that as of the previous day, the vote margin between Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump is expected to be less than 1 percentage point in four states: North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.

ABC News also predicted that in another four states?Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Florida?the margin would be within 4 percentage points, which is typically within the margin of error for polls. Except for Florida, the remaining seven states are classified as battleground states that could determine the election outcome.

Foreign media also forecast a historically narrow victory in the number of electoral votes secured by the two candidates.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Currently, Vice President Harris holds an advantage in the northern battleground states located in the Rust Belt (the declining industrial region around the Great Lakes), while former President Trump leads in most southern states in the Sun Belt (the region south of the 37th parallel north with abundant sunshine), which analysts say increases the likelihood of a close result in the electoral vote count as well.

The U.S. presidential election is conducted through a mixed system of direct popular votes in each state and indirect votes by the Electoral College. Except for Maine and Nebraska, most of the 50 U.S. states use a winner-takes-all Electoral College system, awarding all of a state's electoral votes to the candidate who wins even by a single popular vote in that state.

In other words, the candidate who secures a majority of the total 538 electoral votes?specifically the "magic number" of 270 or more?wins the election.

ABC News pointed out that if their model's prediction is accurate, for example, shifting just 0.8 percentage points toward former President Trump in Nevada would result in Vice President Harris receiving 270 electoral votes and former President Trump receiving 268 electoral votes. ABC explained that this would be the smallest margin in electoral votes since the 1876 presidential election.