With about six weeks remaining in the U.S. presidential race, the competition remains tight. A newly released poll shows that the support gap between Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump is only 1 percentage point.
According to the poll released on the 24th (local time) by CNN and SSRS, Vice President Harris recorded a support rate of 48%, slightly ahead of former President Trump, who received 47%. Libertarian presidential candidate Chase Oliver garnered 2%, and Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein received 1%. CNN noted, "This suggests there is no clear frontrunner in the presidential race," adding that "the race between Harris and Trump is very intense." The survey was conducted from the 19th to the 22nd among 2,074 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of ±3%.
In this survey, both Vice President Harris and former President Trump confirmed solid support within their respective bases. Among Trump supporters, 72%, and among Harris supporters, 60% said they support their candidate because they prefer them, not merely because they oppose the other candidate. This contrasts with the situation right after President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race at the end of July, when Harris supporters were split evenly between 'preferring Harris' and 'opposing Trump.' This indicates that over the past two months, support for Vice President Harris among Democratic supporters has solidified.
Among independent voters, Vice President Harris's support stood at 45%, surpassing former President Trump's 41%. Notably, more than half (51%) of independent women said they support Vice President Harris, while 36% supported former President Trump. Conversely, among independent men, former President Trump led with 47% support compared to Vice President Harris's 40%.
Vice President Harris also received relatively high support from younger voters. Among voters under 30, Harris garnered 55% support, while former President Trump received 38%. Favorability ratings among likely voters showed Vice President Harris with 46% favorable and 48% unfavorable, while former President Trump had 42% favorable and 55% unfavorable. For vice presidential candidates, Democrat Tim Walz had 36% favorable and 32% unfavorable ratings, while Republican J.D. Vance had 30% favorable and 42% unfavorable.
Additionally, about 2% of likely voters said they have not yet decided whom to support. Another 12% said they have chosen a candidate but might change their mind. Forty-one percent of voters identified the economy as the most important issue in this election, followed by protecting democracy (21%), immigration (12%), and abortion (11%). Among those prioritizing the economy, more than half (55%) expressed the greatest concern about inflation.
On the other hand, a poll released the same day by Reuters and Ipsos showed Vice President Harris with a support rate of 46.61%, significantly ahead of former President Trump's 40.48%. This gap is wider than the previous survey's 5 percentage points. The margin of error for this poll, conducted from the 21st to the 23rd, is ±4%, which the gap exceeds. In the weekly poll released by Morning Consult, Vice President Harris's support was 50%, surpassing former President Trump's 45%. Morning Consult reported, "The gap has narrowed compared to last week's 6 percentage points," but added, "Harris holds 80% support among Black voters, while Trump is at 16%, the lowest ever."
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