Trump Escapes Assassination Again... Strengthening Supporters and Absorbing Swing Votes

Approval Rating Rises After First Assassination Attempt... Focus on Presidential Election Impact

Former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate in the United States, dramatically survived a second assassination attempt on the 15th (local time), drawing attention to the potential impact on the upcoming U.S. presidential election, which is about 50 days away. Trump, who is forming a neck-and-neck race with Democratic vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris, is expected to further unite his support base and possibly attract undecided voters as a result of this incident.

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According to the U.S. Secret Service (SS) on the day, the assassination attempt against former President Trump was thwarted while he was playing golf at his own 'Trump International Golf Club' in West Palm Beach, Florida.

SS agents discovered the muzzle of an AK-47 rifle emerging from bushes about 300 meters away from former President Trump, responded preemptively, and apprehended the suspect. The suspect is a 58-year-old man from Hawaii, and the SS has classified the incident as an 'attempted assassination.'

This second assassination attempt occurred just two months after the first, when Trump was shot during a speech in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, sustaining an ear injury but narrowly escaping death. The repercussions on the future presidential race are expected to be significant. As the investigation into the suspect unfolds, revealing motives and possible backers, the full details could greatly influence voter sentiment.

First, it is highly likely that former President Trump's support base will strongly unite. Especially if the attempt is confirmed as a planned assassination, it will reinforce the sentiment to protect Trump, thereby consolidating his supporters. Among undecided voters, sympathy for Trump, who has survived two assassination attempts, may spread, potentially leading to an increase in his approval ratings. Notably, Trump and Vice President Harris are in a tight race in seven battleground states that will decide the election outcome, prompting the political sphere to closely monitor the impact of this incident.

Following the first shooting incident in July, Trump's approval ratings rose. Despite the life-threatening crisis, he immediately stood up and called to "fight," projecting a heroic image and widening the gap in approval ratings with President Joe Biden, who was under pressure to withdraw after a poor performance in the late June presidential TV debate. This eventually led to the Democratic candidate being replaced by Vice President Harris.

Again, former President Trump is using the assassination threat as an opportunity to unite his supporters and raise campaign funds. On the day, he sent an email to his supporters stating, "Nothing can slow me down, and I will never surrender," adding, "I love all of you who always support me." On his campaign fundraising site, Trump pledged, "I will never surrender," and vowed to "make America great again through unity," appealing to his supporters for donations. Some analysts suggest that Trump, who was judged to have lost the recent presidential TV debate against Vice President Harris on the 10th, is trying to use this assassination survival incident as a turning point.

The U.S. daily newspaper The Washington Post (WP) analyzed, "The July 13 shooting incident helped Trump gain support from Republicans and build political momentum just before officially accepting the Republican presidential nomination," and added, "Trump is trying to boost his approval ratings even after the second assassination attempt."