WMO "60% Chance of La Nina Returning by the End of This Year"

There is a 60% chance that La Ni?a will occur by the end of this year.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicted in a press release on the 11th (local time) that the probability of La Ni?a occurring between September and November this year is 55%, and the probability rises to 60% between October this year and February next year.

La Ni?a is a phenomenon where sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become abnormally low, causing various abnormal weather patterns around the world.

The effects of La Ni?a vary by region. Generally, during La Ni?a periods, Eurasia and North America experience higher temperatures, while Western Europe and Australia see lower temperatures. In terms of precipitation, Southeast Asia, Australia, and northern South America tend to have increased rainfall, whereas the southeastern United States often experiences less rainfall.

The La Ni?a event that occurred in May last year disappeared after one year, and since then, a neutral state with neither El Ni?o nor La Ni?a has continued.

Last year, when El Ni?o was in progress, it was recorded as the hottest year in Earth's history. Meteorologists have pointed to El Ni?o as a factor accelerating global warming, while La Ni?a has been evaluated as having a partial cooling effect that suppresses the rise in global temperatures.

However, the WMO assessed that these observations may no longer hold true due to climate change. Even if La Ni?a occurs, the trend of rising global temperatures will not change.

Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the WMO, said, "Even during the period from 2020 to early 2023 when La Ni?a suppressed temperature increases, the Earth was record-breakingly hot," adding, "Since El Ni?o disappeared in June last year, surface and sea surface temperatures have continued to remain at very high levels."

She continued, "Even if short-term cooling occurs due to La Ni?a, the warming trend of the Earth will not change because greenhouse gases in the atmosphere trap heat."