[New York Diary] "Gun Control" Once Again a Key Issue in the U.S. Presidential Election

Following abortion, gun control is likely to emerge as a major issue in the U.S. presidential election campaign. This comes as another mass shooting incident occurred ahead of the November U.S. presidential election. On the 4th of this month, a 14-year-old student opened fire at a high school in a small town near Atlanta, Georgia, killing at least four people and injuring nine. Alongside the shooting incident involving former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, calls for gun control are gaining momentum due to the school shooting. While both issues are not politically contentious in South Korea, in the U.S. they have significant influence, often serving as criteria that divide political party support.

The likelihood of gun ownership supporters turning into gun control advocates due to this mass shooting is low. However, gun control advocates who previously showed little interest in the election are now more likely to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate who promises stricter gun regulations, rather than for Trump, who supports gun ownership. Given that Harris and Trump are engaged in one of the closest presidential races in history, the key factor is how many supporters each side can mobilize to the polls. From this perspective, the Georgia mass shooting incident could be advantageous for the Democrats, regardless of the tragedy itself. Georgia is one of the seven battleground states that can determine the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, making it difficult to underestimate the impact of this shooting. Notably, in the 2020 election, Biden narrowly won Georgia by just 0.23 percentage points, securing all its electoral votes in a highly competitive region.

From our viewpoint, the gun issue might seem straightforward?just ban them?but in the U.S., it is deeply rooted in history. The United States can be considered a country founded on firearms. European settlers armed with guns took land from Native Americans and established the nation, and militias armed with guns played a crucial role in the war of independence against Britain. The Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution states, "A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed," providing a clear legal basis for gun ownership. Ultimately, gun rights advocates view gun ownership as deeply connected to American society and historical identity, and they strongly resist gun control arguments. The U.S. Supreme Court also reaffirmed the legality of gun ownership in a 2008 ruling, stating that the Constitution does not permit an absolute ban on individuals possessing firearms for self-defense in their homes.

Nevertheless, the trend toward stronger gun control in American society appears difficult to reverse. This is because gun-related deaths among teenagers and young children are increasing. According to data from the Gun Violence Archive, the number of gun-related deaths among children aged 11 and under in the U.S. rose from 196 in 2014 to 297 last year, an increase of over 50%. The issue of deaths among middle and high school students due to gun incidents is even more severe. The number of middle and high school student deaths from gun accidents more than doubled during the same period, from 569 to 1,385. Deaths from mass shootings also increased from 272 to 656. Even considering the U.S. identity and the partial inevitability of gun ownership, public opinion on gun use is inevitably worsening.

The U.S. presidential election is now just two months away. The gun control debate sparked by the Georgia mass shooting may intensify until the election or quickly fade as other issues take precedence. However, as long as individual gun ownership is not completely banned in the U.S., this controversy will persist through many, possibly dozens, of future presidential elections. The gap between the argument that guns must be fully regulated to prevent deaths caused by gun ownership and the claim that gun use is essential for personal self-defense is unlikely to narrow even over the next several hundred years.