Why Did Lee Jae-myung Bring Up the 'Martial Law Preparation Theory'?

A Strategic Move to Signal the Crisis of the Yoon Administration
Also Aimed to Divert Attention from Issues Like Prosecutor Investigations

The ruling and opposition parties are intensifying their disputes over Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, and his remarks about the 'martial law preparation theory.' The presidential office and the ruling party strongly criticized, saying, "If this is not irresponsible agitation, then stake your position as party leader and speak. This is a baseless rumor agitation based on imagination." However, the Democratic Party is not backing down from its offensive.

The Democratic Party's 'martial law' claim is spreading publicly, centered around pro-Lee figures and party leaders such as Kim Min-seok and Kim Byung-joo. Jeong Seong-ho, a leading figure of the pro-Lee (pro-Lee Jae-myung) faction, stated on the radio on the 3rd, "It is natural to suspect (the declaration of martial law). Otherwise, they can just clarify that it is not true."

Why is the Democratic Party suddenly talking about 'martial law'? First, attention is focused on President Yoon's remarks during the recent Liberation Day speech. President Yoon described the current political situation as "a situation never experienced before." Based on this remark, the opposition suspects that the ruling party might be preparing martial law to launch an offensive against the opposition.

One background to this is the so-called 'Chungam faction,' alumni from Chungam High School, President Yoon's alma mater, who are positioned in defense and intelligence sectors. So far, four members of the military intelligence line from the Chungam faction are known. Kim Yong-hyun, the nominee for Minister of National Defense, is a representative figure. Kim was formerly the head of the Presidential Security Service and is one year senior to President Yoon at Chungam High School. Yeon In-hyung, commander of the Defense Counterintelligence Command, and Park Jong-seon, commander of the 777th Command, are also known to be Chungam High School alumni. Kim Byung-joo, a Supreme Council member of the Democratic Party and former deputy commander of the ROK-US Combined Forces Command, said, "Many citizens are worried that martial law might be declared if the impeachment situation deepens."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

In political circles, many believe that Lee's mention of the 'martial law preparation theory' has more political background than actual circumstances. There are three main interpretations. First, it is interpreted that the Democratic Party leadership intends to publicly reveal signals that the Yoon administration is nearing its end based on actual information. If the opposition intensifies the impeachment process against President Yoon, the government is suspected of preparing a martial law scenario as a countermeasure, and the Democratic Party wants to make this known in advance to emphasize that the government is in a crisis situation. Political commentator Hwang Tae-soon analyzed, "If the Democratic Party continues to assert the martial law theory and attract public attention, it could put considerable pressure on the government, which cannot be free from risks such as the allegations of Kim Geon-hee's luxury handbag acceptance."

Another interpretation is that the Democratic Party is laying the groundwork to preemptively block the government in case it uses martial law to overcome the impeachment crisis and utilize it as a new driving force for state control. Kim Min-seok's remark, "The core of the regime's flow is a martial law preparation operation with local warfare and North Korean provocation in mind, which is my well-founded conviction," is also seen as reflecting this concern. Political commentator Park Sang-byeong analyzed, "If the government induces local warfare with North Korea and declares martial law as the Democratic Party claims, it would not be easy for the National Assembly to lift it. The Democratic Party seems to be wary and suspicious even of a 0.1% possibility."

Some also analyze that there is an intention to divert attention from the prosecution's investigation into former President Moon Jae-in. The negative public opinion arising from the investigation into Seo, the former son-in-law of former President Moon, regarding the 'Taeis Starjet preferential hiring' allegations could potentially spread to the entire party, and this is seen as a preemptive measure to block that. Since the verdict for Lee's first trial on perjury instruction charges is scheduled for October, worsening public opinion could influence the trial's outcome. This is described as a kind of 'environmental management.'