Possibility of Using Nuclear Card if Russian Mainland Threatened
Ukraine Continues to Demand Extension of Weapon Range
As Ukraine continues its advance into Russian mainland for over three weeks, concerns are rising about the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons. So far, the Ukrainian forces are attacking areas in Kursk Oblast, which are of lower strategic importance, and there are no signs of a nuclear strike. However, analysts warn that if the security of the Moscow metropolitan area is threatened, Russia could deploy its nuclear option at any time. Some experts also express concerns that the traditional military advantage of nuclear-armed states, known as 'nuclear deterrence,' may be collapsing in this war, potentially intensifying the arms race.
Ukraine Advances into Russian Mainland for 3 Weeks... Concerns Over Putin Triggering 'Red Line'
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on the 1st (local time), Ukrainian forces have established defensive lines in the occupied areas of Russia's Kursk Oblast and have been engaged in combat for three weeks. The Russian military has redeployed some troops from attacks on Ukraine to the Kursk area to launch counterattacks but has struggled to make significant advances. Both sides are currently in a stalemate in the Kursk region.
Among experts, cautious concerns are emerging that Russia might resort to nuclear weapons to reverse the tide of the war as its forces fail to push back the Ukrainian troops. Nikolai Sokov, a former Russian arms control negotiator, warned in an interview with The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), "In fact, no one knows Russia's exact red line. They have never clearly stated it. Later, we might realize that the red line was crossed two months ago." He added, "President Vladimir Putin views threats to his regime as sovereign threats, and if Ukrainian forces continue to achieve successes in attacking the mainland, it could trigger nuclear use."
In March 2022, shortly after the outbreak of the Ukraine war, Russia declared that it could use nuclear weapons if its existence was threatened. The nuclear agreements previously made with the United States have all been broken since the war began. Russia possesses approximately 5,900 nuclear warheads and around 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons, the largest stockpile in the world. If the battlefield situation deteriorates further, Russia could escalate nuclear provocations step-by-step, starting with tactical nuclear weapons, to exert military pressure on the U.S. and the West.
Zelensky Pressures West to Lift Range Limits on Weapons
Amid growing concerns over Russia's potential use of nuclear weapons, the Ukrainian government is urging the U.S. and Western countries to lift restrictions on the range of support weapons so they can strike deeper into Russian territory.
On the 31st of last month (local time), Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in a speech, "Six people were killed and 97 injured by Russian air-launched guided bombs. To prevent such attacks, we must strike Russian airfields, bases, and logistics." He emphasized, "We need approval for long-range capabilities, long-range shells, and missiles." President Zelensky is expected to attend the United Nations General Assembly on the 18th and again request the U.S. government to lift the range restrictions on weapons for striking Russian mainland.
Regarding this issue, the UK and France support lifting the range limits, but the U.S. and German governments remain opposed. There is concern that if the war escalates into a full-scale conflict between Russia and the West, a large-scale nuclear war could break out. The U.S. government still restricts the use of weapons supplied to Ukraine to areas near the Russian border.
Nuclear Powers Also Face Mainland Attacks... Changing Perceptions of Nuclear Deterrence?
Russia, a nuclear-armed state that has never before suffered a mainland invasion, is now facing attacks on its mainland from non-nuclear Ukraine. This has raised concerns that the nuclear deterrence, long considered a cornerstone of modern defense strategy, could be significantly weakened.
The WSJ cited experts saying, "Since the 1950s, skepticism has grown regarding the nuclear deterrence theory that nuclear weapons prevent war. The idea that a non-nuclear state would attack a nuclear-armed state was previously unimaginable." They pointed out that although there has been 75 years of successful deterrence, this does not mean nuclear weapons always prevent war.
Especially given that the Putin regime has frequently engaged in unpredictable military provocations and wars in its foreign policy, the possibility of nuclear war is expected to remain a topic of concern for some time. Janice Gross Stein, a conflict management scholar at the University of Toronto, told the WSJ, "The Putin regime has always been unpredictable, and after Ukraine's mainland attacks, there will be ongoing competition inside and outside Russia between forces that increase strategic uncertainty and those that seek to calm it." She explained, "Military provocations, threats, restraint, and testing limits will continue, with signals of nuclear attack being sent to pressure the opponent."
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