Harris and Trump Each Lead in 3 of 7 Battleground States... Neck and Neck Race

The Hill Poll Shows a Neck-and-Neck Race Within the Margin of Error
Harris Gains Momentum in USA Today Nationwide Survey

In the U.S. presidential election, following the withdrawal of independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. and his endorsement of former President Donald Trump, a poll conducted in battleground states shows a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump.

The political news outlet The Hill reported on the 29th that in a poll conducted by Emerson College from the 25th to the 28th (local time) among 700 to 800 likely voters in each of seven key battleground states (margin of error ±2.8 to 3.6 percentage points), both candidates held leads within the margin of error in three states each, with one state resulting in a tie.

Vice President Harris leads narrowly in Georgia (49 to 48), Michigan (50 to 47), and Nevada (49 to 48), while former President Trump holds slight leads in Arizona (50 to 47), North Carolina (49 to 48), and Wisconsin (49 to 48). Pennsylvania recorded a tie at 48 to 48.

The margins in states where each candidate leads remain within the margin of error. This indicates an extremely close contest in the battleground states that will decide the presidential election, with no state showing a clear advantage for either candidate.

Earlier, on the 23rd, Kennedy Jr. announced his withdrawal from the race and his support for former President Trump. Before withdrawing, Kennedy Jr.'s national support hovered around 5%.

A nationwide poll conducted by USA Today and Suffolk University from the 25th to the 28th among 1,000 likely voters (margin of error ±3.1 percentage points) showed Vice President Harris leading within the margin of error. Harris’s support stood at 48%, while former President Trump’s was at 43%.

This marks a reversal from a similar poll by the same organizations in June, before President Joe Biden withdrew from the race, when Biden trailed former President Trump by 4 percentage points.

USA Today attributed Harris’s rising support to increased backing from traditional Democratic voter groups such as Hispanics, Black voters, and young people. Notably, among voters with an annual income below $20,000 (approximately 26.7 million KRW), Harris’s support was 23 percentage points higher than Trump’s. In June, Trump led Biden by 3 percentage points in this income group, indicating a significant shift in voter sentiment over two months. Recently, Vice President Harris announced a large-scale tax cut plan benefiting over 100 million Americans in the middle class and below, which may have contributed to this shift in voter support.