"Likely to Announce at Arizona Speech as Early as the 23rd"
Single-Digit Approval Ratings, but Decisive in a Tight Race
With just over two months remaining until the November U.S. presidential election, attention is focused on the potential impact on the race following news of the imminent withdrawal of independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. Analyses are mixed, with some predicting Kennedy's exit would benefit former President Donald Trump, while others expect it will not make a significant difference.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 22nd (local time) that "the withdrawal of independent candidate Kennedy is imminent," adding that "this could be advantageous for Trump and detrimental to Harris." Earlier, ABC News cited sources saying Kennedy might resign as early as the 23rd and is considering endorsing former President Trump. Kennedy has announced plans to deliver a speech on the "future direction" in Phoenix, Arizona, on the 23rd. Former President Trump also has a rally scheduled in Arizona on the same day.
Until early July, Kennedy's support was in double digits, but it has since dropped significantly. According to polling firm FiveThirtyEight, Kennedy currently holds 4.7% support, trailing far behind Vice President Kamala Harris at 47% and former President Trump at 43.7%. However, despite Kennedy's low single-digit support, recent polls show a neck-and-neck race between the two major party candidates in battleground states within the margin of error, suggesting Kennedy could still play a decisive role in the outcome.
Most polls indicate that Kennedy's withdrawal would likely benefit former President Trump. Many Democrats who had joined Kennedy's camp out of disillusionment with the Democratic Party have reportedly returned to Vice President Harris following President Joe Biden's withdrawal. In fact, Kennedy's support dropped from 8.6% just before Biden's exit to 4.7% after Harris took over. Even if the remaining supporters are dissatisfied with the Republican Party, it is unlikely they would now choose Vice President Harris.
Sarah Longwell, an anti-Trump Republican strategist, stated, "The left's curiosity about Kennedy Jr. has vanished," adding, "The remaining Kennedy supporters are Trump backers, and Trump can absorb them." Larry Sharp, who was in charge of publicity for Kennedy's super PAC, predicted, "There will be more supporters who want to go to Trump."
However, there are also forecasts that Kennedy's departure will not cause dramatic changes in the election landscape. Kennedy's supporters were originally composed of so-called "double haters" who disliked both President Biden and former President Trump, and support for third-party candidates typically does not translate into actual votes in the general election. According to a recent New York Times (NYT) and Siena College poll, 35% of Kennedy supporters said they would back former President Trump, while 34% said they would support Vice President Harris.
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