Japan also declines reappointment... A numerical look at the 3 years of the Kishida administration [Global Focus]

"I believe there must be clear responsibility for the situation that caused political distrust." This statement was made by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida as he announced that he will not run in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election this September and will forgo his bid for a second term as Prime Minister. Accordingly, Prime Minister Kishida will step down at the end of his term in late September. Early in his term, he boasted approval ratings in the 60% range and a single-party majority in the Diet, raising expectations for a "golden three years," but the end appears less favorable compared to the promising start. Despite achievements in economic and foreign policies, successive controversies such as ties with the Unification Church and slush fund scandals led to public alienation. Here is a numerical overview of the past three years of the Kishida administration.

[Image source= Xinhua News Agency]

100 = Japan's '100th Prime Minister'

Prime Minister Kishida took office in October 2021 as Japan's 100th Prime Minister. As of the 14th, when he officially announced his intention not to run, his tenure had reached 1,046 days. By the end of his term in late September, he will have served 1,093 days. Among the 35 postwar Japanese prime ministers, Kishida is the eighth to serve more than 1,000 days.

Notably, Kishida's decision not to run came after U.S. President Joe Biden announced he would not seek re-election, drawing international attention. Among the Group of Seven (G7) leaders, only Prime Minister Kishida, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, French President Emmanuel Macron, and President Biden have served more than 1,000 days. However, ironically, the domestic political standing of these leaders, who have led efforts to check China and Russia and shape the international order, is currently unfavorable.

28 = 'Resignation Crisis' Approval Rating... 28% in July

The factor blocking Kishida's reappointment was his plummeting approval rating, which fell into the "resignation crisis" zone in the 20% range. Early in his administration, the Kishida Cabinet's approval rating exceeded 60%. Following the House of Representatives election immediately after his inauguration, the LDP secured a single-party majority, and in the subsequent July House of Councillors election, the party achieved a landslide victory, leading to assessments that a path to long-term rule had opened. Until then, the cabinet's approval rating remained in the mid-to-high 60% range.

However, the shooting death of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe during the House of Councillors election campaign marked the beginning of the decline in approval ratings. Subsequently, investigations into the shooter revealed ties between key LDP politicians and the Unification Church, causing approval ratings to plunge below 30% for the first time. The Kishida Cabinet attempted to raise approval ratings again by highlighting diplomatic achievements such as the U.S.-Japan summit and the G7 summit last year, but these efforts were unsuccessful.

Especially damaging was the LDP slush fund scandal that broke out at the end of last year. Since then, major polls have shown the Kishida Cabinet's approval rating hovering in the 20% range?indicative of a resignation crisis?for about ten months. The administration also suffered consecutive defeats in regional by-elections, traditionally LDP strongholds, confirming the frozen public sentiment. For Kishida, this made it difficult to maintain his position within the party. According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, a July poll showed only 28% of respondents supported Prime Minister Kishida, while 64% opposed him.

42,224.02 = Japanese Stock Market Rally, Nikkei Index Hits Record High

However, the Kishida Cabinet is credited with some achievements in economic policy. The Tokyo Stock Exchange, buoyed by a weak yen and strong corporate earnings, continued a historic rally.

Japan's leading stock index, the Nikkei 225, reached an all-time high of 42,224.02 on July 11. This rally surpassed the bubble economy levels from 34 years ago. As foreign investors poured in amid the weak yen trend, there were widespread assessments that "the lost 30 years are over." Although the Tokyo Stock Exchange experienced rollercoaster fluctuations earlier this month due to growing U.S. recession fears and the unwinding of yen carry trades, it has since stably recovered above the 37,000 level during trading sessions.

Prime Minister Kishida has praised his cabinet for laying the foundation for Japan's escape from deflation. The government took the lead in encouraging companies to raise wages, resulting in Japanese workers' real wages turning positive for the first time in three years. In March this year, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) ended its long-standing negative interest rate policy with the first rate hike in 17 years.

32 = Diplomatic Skill as Former Foreign Minister... Visited 32 Countries During Tenure

As a former foreign minister, Prime Minister Kishida has demonstrated confidence in diplomacy. His cabinet cites improvements in Japan-South Korea relations, strengthening of U.S.-Japan ties, and hosting the G7 summit as key achievements. Despite international instability caused by the prolonged Ukraine war, Middle East unrest, and North Korea's nuclear missile provocations, Kishida has shown diplomatic skill by reinforcing cooperation with allies. Toshimitsu Motegi, a leading candidate for the next prime minister, stated in a press release last week following Kishida's announcement not to run, "He has raised Japan's presence in the international community."

Since taking office, Kishida has visited a total of 32 countries. He has visited the United States eight times, including a state visit in April this year where he delivered a joint address to Congress for the first time in nine years. He has also worked to build relationships with Indo-Pacific countries to counter China's hegemony. He visited India and Indonesia three times each and Singapore twice. Regarding South Korea, he visited twice: once in May 2023 for the Japan-South Korea summit and again in May for the trilateral summit among Japan, China, and South Korea.

2 = Japan's Defense Strengthening... Defense Budget Raised to '2% of GDP'

Local media highlight that during his tenure, Prime Minister Kishida significantly strengthened Japan's defense capabilities, actively promoting the country's transition to a "war-capable nation." This has been a longstanding challenge for every administration since Kishida took office.

The Kishida Cabinet intensified defense enhancement by revising the "Three Security Documents" in 2022 (National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and Defense Buildup Program). Accordingly, the defense budget was raised to "2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)," abandoning the principle maintained since 1976 to keep it within 1% of GDP to prevent militarization. The related budget, which was around 5 trillion yen, expanded to 8.9 trillion yen this year.

Furthermore, following the previous Abe administration, which adopted a constitutional interpretation allowing the exercise of collective self-defense rights, Kishida's government refined laws to concretize counterattack capabilities that enable strikes on enemy bases. At the end of last year, it also permitted the export of next-generation fighter jets developed jointly with other countries to third countries. These measures depart from Japan's long-standing pacifist constitution principle of "exclusive defense" (minimal defense only when attacked). Notably, during a state visit to the United States, Kishida secured public support from President Biden for these defense enhancements.