Maersk CEO Klaus: "Early Orders Placed to Prepare for US-China Trade War"
"Geopolitical Tensions in the Red Sea Expected to Persist Until Year-End"
As the U.S. presidential election approaches, concerns are growing in the shipping industry about the possibility of former President Donald Trump returning to the White House. Customers are rushing to ship goods amid expectations of an intensified U.S.-China trade war, worsening supply chain issues.
According to major foreign media such as CNBC on the 7th (local time), Vincent Clerc, CEO of Maersk, the world's second-largest shipping company, expressed concerns that some customers have started placing Christmas orders earlier than usual.
CEO Clerc said, "Not only in the U.S., but generally, customers are advancing their orders," adding, "This is due to supply disruptions and concerns over the trade war." He continued, "It's difficult to specify exactly how much orders have increased, but customers want to store Christmas goods in warehouses in advance."
Maersk had already warned customers in June not to advance year-end shipments. However, with former President Trump announcing high tariffs on Chinese imports upon taking office, importers not only in the U.S. but also in other regions are rushing shipments. The company reported that exports to China in the second quarter grew nearly 10% year-on-year.
Recently, concerns about a possible recession in the U.S. economy have emerged in the stock market. CEO Clerc said the company has not seen signs that the U.S. economy is entering a recessionary phase. He stated, "Inventories are higher than at the beginning of the year, but inventories (goods stored before delivery or processing) were at very low levels at the start of the year, and demand remains strong." He added, "One of the biggest uncertainties is how long demand will maintain its resilience as it is now."
The global supply chain, which experienced severe disruption due to the COVID-19 pandemic, has recovered, but since October last year, ships passing through the Red Sea, a major global trade route, have been attacked by Yemen's Houthi rebels. As a result, global shipping companies have chosen detour routes around Africa, continuing supply chain instability.
Maersk revised its annual basic operating profit forecast from $1 billion to $3 billion in June to between $3 billion and $5 billion on the 1st of this month. Earlier in February, it had anticipated losses of up to $5 billion. This is due to the increase in global trade and disruptions in the global supply chain.
CEO Clerc told CNBC that he expects the Red Sea detour to continue at least until the end of the year. This has caused some vessel shortages in the second and third quarters. He said that if this situation persists, significant cost increases are expected and will have to be passed on to customers. For routes from Asia to Europe or the U.S. East Coast, a 20-30% cost increase is anticipated.
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