US CSIS: "If US Troops Withdraw from Korea Under Trump, Japan Will Also Be Affected"

Christopher Johnston, a Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) who served as a White House aide in the Joe Biden administration, predicted that if former President Donald Trump were to regain power, security policies could lead to the withdrawal of U.S. forces from South Korea, which would also impact Japan.

In an interview reported by Kyodo News on the 30th, Johnston stated, "It is necessary to recognize that Japan would be affected depending on the policies the Trump administration might choose in Asia," adding, "For example, if U.S. forces withdraw from South Korea, it would also affect Japan."

Christopher Johnston, Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
[Photo by CSIS]

He referred to the time when President Trump demanded an increase in the cost of stationing U.S. forces in Japan and predicted that once the current special agreement, which expires in March 2027, ends, the next negotiations would be difficult.

However, he noted that both the Republican and Democratic parties recognize the importance of Japan's role in responding to China, and forecasted that regardless of who wins the presidential election, the U.S.-Japan alliance will remain unchanged.

Regarding the Biden administration's alliance policy, he said, "The United States' alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific are stronger than ever." He cited examples such as the U.S.-Japan alliance, the U.S.-South Korea alliance, trilateral cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, and AUKUS (the security alliance among the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia).

Johnston added, "Along with China and Russia, North Korea is likely to understand that any aggressive actions would come at a very high cost," and expressed confidence that deterrence will be maintained.