Maintaining 500,000 Troops Will Be Difficult from Next Year [Yang Nakgyu's Defence Club]

National Assembly Budget Office Publishes Evaluation Report on Military Service Condition Improvement Project

Starting next year, it will be difficult to maintain the standing military force at 500,000 personnel. This forecast suggests that the standing force will decrease faster than the Ministry of National Defense's announcement last year to maintain 500,000 troops.

According to the "Evaluation Report on Military Service Condition Improvement Projects" published by the National Assembly Budget Office on the 16th, the number of 20-year-old males eligible for military service is decreasing every year. The number of eligible conscripts was 435,000 in 2001, dropping to 323,000 in 2008. From next year, it will decrease to 239,000. By 2045, it is expected to fall to 119,000, which is 51.1% of the 2035 level.

As the population decreases, the standing military force also declines. The National Assembly Budget Office expects it will be difficult to maintain a standing force of 500,000 from next year. When the Ministry of National Defense announced the mid-term defense plan at the end of last year, it stated that it would maintain a standing force of 500,000 while restructuring the military from a pyramid to a jar-shaped structure. However, it is anticipated that this plan will face setbacks. If the current conscription system is maintained, the standing force is predicted to be only 350,000 to 365,000 by 2040.

One reason for the reduction in standing forces is the declining active duty qualification rate. The active duty qualification rate was maintained in the 90% range in 2004 but has fallen since 2014, reaching only 80.4% in 2018. The proportion of conscription examination candidates diagnosed with mental health issues has also increased. It was only 1.7% in 2012 but rose to 6.7% last year. The proportion of active-duty soldiers discharged due to psychiatric abnormalities after enlistment has also increased. They accounted for 39.4% (1,902 individuals) of all discharges in 2014 but rose to 50.8% (2,539 individuals) in 2022.

Inside and outside the military, there is concern as the application rate for junior non-commissioned officers and officers declines annually, while resignation requests from company-grade officers (Second Lieutenant to Captain) are increasing. The military attributes the resignation intentions of junior officers to feelings of deprivation caused by soldier-focused policies such as recent salary increases. Additionally, excessive workloads and rigid military culture are also considered contributing factors.

The National Assembly Budget Office pointed out, "The standing force is expected to decline sharply after 2035," and emphasized that "comprehensive measures, including expanding the selection rate for long-term service, are necessary."