[New York Stock Market] Dow Hits Record High Amid Trump Shooting and Powell's Remarks... Trump Beneficiary Stocks Rise

'Trump SNS' up 31.4%... Tesla also ↑
Powell "Confidence in Inflation Slowdown Grows"
June Retail Sales and Corporate Earnings in Focus

The three major indices of the U.S. New York stock market all closed higher on the 15th (local time). It is analyzed that a relief rally unfolded after former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, miraculously survived an assassination attempt on the 13th. Following the shooting, as the possibility of Trump's victory in the upcoming November election increased, 'Trump beneficiary stocks,' including TMTG, which operates the social media platform Truth Social, showed strong performance. Investors are digesting the schedule of the Republican National Convention that began that day and the remarks of Jerome Powell, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), while awaiting corporate Q2 earnings and June retail sales data.

On that day at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the blue-chip-focused Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.82 points (0.53%) from the previous trading day to close at an all-time high of 40,211.72. The large-cap-focused S&P 500 index increased by 15.87 points (0.28%) to 5,631.22, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq index gained 74.12 points (0.4%) to finish at 18,472.57.

Investors paid close attention to the impact of the shooting incident involving former President Trump on the asset market. On the 13th at around 6:10 p.m., during an outdoor rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, an assassin's bullet grazed Trump's right ear, causing injury. Immediately after the shooting, he was surrounded by bodyguards and evacuated but showed his resilience by clenching his fist. This has led to speculation that Trump's support base has further consolidated, smoothing his path to the presidency.

Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA Research, said, "The good news is that former President Trump was not injured except for his ear and did not die," adding, "As a result, the market is expected to maintain momentum."

Former President Trump was officially nominated as the Republican presidential candidate at the Republican National Convention that opened that day. His running mate for vice president is J.D. Vance, a 39-year-old U.S. Senator from Ohio. Overcoming a difficult family background, Senator Vance has risen rapidly as a potential presidential candidate with this vice-presidential nomination. Vance will deliver his acceptance speech for the vice-presidential nomination on the third day of the convention, the 17th, and Trump will give his acceptance speech for the presidential nomination on the final day of the convention, the 18th.

By stock, beneficiary stocks of a Trump victory rose. TMTG, which operates Truth Social, surged 31.37% on expectations of an increased likelihood of Trump's election. Humana and UnitedHealth Group rose 0.52% and 0.75%, respectively, as insurance companies are expected to face less cost pressure under a Republican administration. Tesla, whose CEO Elon Musk has expressed support for Trump, rose 1.78%. Goldman Sachs jumped 2.57% after reporting better-than-expected Q2 earnings.

Investors also focused on Fed Chairman Powell's remarks alongside the Republican National Convention. In a conversation with David Rubenstein, Chairman of the U.S. private equity firm Carlyle Group, at the Economic Club in Washington D.C., Powell said regarding inflation easing, "We did not gain additional confidence in the first quarter, but three indicators from the second quarter (April to June) somewhat increased our confidence." He added, "Inflation has now declined, and the labor market has actually cooled," and said, "We will look at both, and these two are in much better balance." Regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, Powell stated, "It will be decided at each meeting."

Investors are taking the possibility of a rate cut in September as a given. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch on that day, the federal funds futures market reflects a 99.9% probability that the Fed will cut rates by at least 0.25 percentage points at the September FOMC meeting. This probability rose from the mid-90% range earlier that morning.

Bill Mertz, Head of Capital Markets Research at U.S. Bank Asset Management, analyzed, "We are getting very close to the point where the Fed will see the data needed to comfortably cut rates. This is the most important thing for market sentiment."

Investors are expected to watch the Republican National Convention this week while digesting June retail sales data and corporate earnings reports. June retail sales, to be released on the 16th, are forecasted to have decreased by 0.2% month-over-month. In May, retail sales had increased by 0.1%.

Government bond yields rose on the increased likelihood of Trump's election. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, a global benchmark for bond yields, rose 4 basis points (1bp = 0.01 percentage points) from the previous trading day to around 4.22%. The 2-year Treasury yield, sensitive to monetary policy, traded near the previous day's level of 4.45%.

International oil prices declined. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $0.30 to close at $81.91 per barrel, and Brent crude, the global oil price benchmark, dropped $0.18 to finish at $85.85 per barrel.