[Initial Insight] Democracy and Inflation

Rising Inflation Boosts Trump Approval Ratings
Strong Aftermath of Trump Shooting Incident

The White House exterior where President Joe Biden held a reception dinner on the 10th (local time) for leaders of NATO allies and partner countries. Security measures, including fences around the White House, were being strengthened ahead of the dinner.

"I don't want to say who should be president between Biden and Trump. The important thing is that Biden is too old, and a younger person needs to come forward before it's too late."

On the afternoon of the 10th, a voter in their 60s whom I met in Washington D.C., the capital of the United States, while covering the NATO summit held on the 10th and 11th (local time), responded this way to a reporter's question, "Who do you think will become president?" This voter, who stopped by to tour the White House, introduced themselves as having lived in Virginia for over 20 years and emphasized again, "We need a young president." Another voter I met in front of the Lincoln Memorial in Washington D.C. withheld their answer when asked whom they supported but said in a strong tone, "Only Michelle Obama can be an alternative to Biden." In Washington D.C., known as a Democratic stronghold in the U.S., a tense atmosphere reflecting a sense of crisis was palpable.

That afternoon, the White House was busy preparing for the official welcome dinner reception inviting heads of state to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the NATO summit hosted by President Joe Biden. As the dinner time approached, armed police tightened security around the White House, controlling the influx of tourists. A Korean immigrant who has been working in the tourism industry in Washington D.C. for several years said, "I have lived in the U.S. for over 20 years, but this country is not easy to define," and added, "Due to high prices making life tough, it seems Trump's approval rating has risen," conveying the atmosphere.

On the 10th (local time), when the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit was held, tourists were entering the Lincoln Memorial located in Washington D.C., USA, to visit.

The whole world is abuzz ahead of the U.S. presidential election on November 5, which will decide the occupant of the White House. The shooting incident involving former President Trump at a campaign event in Pennsylvania on the afternoon of the 13th sent shockwaves worldwide. Pennsylvania, where the shooting occurred, along with Nevada, Arizona, and Wisconsin, is a key battleground state where neither the Democratic nor Republican parties have a clear advantage. It is expected that which candidate wins in Rust Belt areas like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will have a decisive impact on the election outcome. Since Pennsylvania is one of the regions where Biden has invested the most effort to secure votes, the aftermath is expected to be significant, and the Biden campaign is closely monitoring the situation.

Nonpartisan groups such as the Cook Political Report conducted polls in seven battleground states from May 6 to 13, confirming that the 'economy' is the defining issue of this election. According to the polls, voters in battleground states recognize that if former President Trump succeeds in his re-election, the future of American democracy could be uncertain. However, their belief that he will lower prices offsets this concern, leading to support for Trump. This means that immediate concerns about daily living expenses, namely inflation and prices, are influencing voters' decisions more than the 'threat to democracy.'

The U.S. election process holds significant implications for domestic politics as well. The domestic situation is not much different from that of the U.S. Recent National Assembly sessions, which prioritize political strife over 'people's livelihood,' only bring sighs. Next month, the national budget will be announced, and plans to enhance competitiveness in key industries such as system semiconductors are underway, but legislative tasks are being sidelined as the opposition party leads the political situation. There are concerns about a sharp rise in vegetable prices due to recent heavy rains, and soaring dining-out costs remain unchecked. The cost of neglecting people's livelihood will be fully reflected in the 2027 South Korean presidential election as well.