World Population Peaks at 10 Billion in 2084... Then Declines

UN Biennial Population Report Released
World Population Reaches 8.09 Billion as of July Last Year

The world population is expected to peak in 2084, 60 years from now, and then enter a declining trend.

On the 11th (local time), the American daily The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the United Nations released its biennial population projection report predicting that the world population will reach a maximum of 10.29 billion in 2084 and then decline to 10.18 billion by 2100.

[Image source=Pixabay]

As of July last year, the global population was 8.09 billion. WSJ explained that according to the UN’s population estimates, the rate of global population growth is slower than previously estimated, and the population at its peak will be lower than initially expected.

In most parts of Europe and about 60 countries including China, which has long held the position as the most populous country, the population has already peaked and shifted to a downward trend. As of last year, China’s population was recorded at 1.42 billion, losing its position as the most populous country to India, which has 1.44 billion people. The UN expects that due to population decline in Asia and slow population growth in the Americas, the population of sub-Saharan African countries will approach one-third of the world population by 2100. In particular, nine countries including Angola and the Central Asian Republic are expected to see their populations double over the next 30 years.

On the 11th, Choo Kyung-ho, floor leader of the People Power Party, submitted a bill addressing low birth rates at the National Assembly's Legislative Affairs Office. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

The global fertility rate was 2.25 last year. The UN stated that this figure is expected to fall below 2.1, which is considered the replacement fertility rate in developed countries, in an increasing number of countries. The fertility rate is the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime, and the replacement fertility rate is the rate needed to maintain the current population. The UN also explained that due to a faster-than-expected decline in fertility rates in some populous countries, the global population by 2100 is expected to be 700 million less than projections made 10 years ago. However, despite the decline in fertility rates, the global population is expected to continue increasing until the end of this century due to the rise in the number of women of childbearing age.

Meanwhile, according to the population projection data used in this report, South Korea’s population is expected to fall below 50 million by 2037 and break the 40 million mark by 2060. The estimated population of South Korea in 2100 is about 22.007 million. South Korea was also classified as an 'ultra-low' fertility country along with China, Italy, and Spain.