Who is 'Far-Left Politician' Melanchon, Leading the Major Upset in the French Legislative Election?

"Can Jean-Luc M?lenchon become prime minister?" (Marine Le Pen, Member of Parliament)

"No one can claim victory. M?lenchon is even less so." (G?rald Darmanin, Minister of the Interior)

As the left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NFP), not the far-right National Rally (RN), is projected to unexpectedly take first place in the French early general election, voices from various camps are pouring out statements targeting the 'far-left politician' Jean-Luc M?lenchon, leader of La France Insoumise (LFI). M?lenchon, considered the flagship of the French left, is one of the figures who led the left-wing coalition's dramatic turnaround in this election by saying, "We must prevent far-right rule."

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

On the 7th (local time), immediately after exit polls predicted the left-wing coalition's victory, M?lenchon held a press conference and declared victory, saying, "Our people have clearly rejected the worst-case scenario (far-right rule)" and "We have achieved a left-wing coalition victory that was considered impossible." He addressed President Emmanuel Macron, stating, "The president has an obligation to entrust the NFP with running the country," and raised his voice, saying, "The left-wing coalition is ready to govern." He also emphasized that the coalition would implement its pledges as is, stating, "There will be no alliances or negotiations (with Macron and others)." The NFP is a left-wing alliance formed ahead of this election by LFI together with the Communist Party, the Green Party, and the Socialist Party.

M?lenchon, who led one pillar of the left-wing coalition, was born in Morocco and moved to France at the age of 11. After studying philosophy at university, he entered politics in 1976 in his twenties. He was elected several times to local councils, the national assembly, and the European Parliament as a member of the Socialist Party, and also served as deputy governor of Essonne and deputy minister of education. However, due to his strong anti-capitalist stance, he left the Socialist Party in 2008, criticizing its shift toward centrism, and later founded the current LFI in 2016. He is also well known as a fan of Venezuela's Hugo Ch?vez and Cuba's Fidel Castro, and is regarded as a populist orator who delivers passionate speeches without notes, mixing satire and anger.

Now 72 years old, he has run for president three times?in 2012, 2017, and 2022?but was defeated each time. Concerns have always followed that his excessively radical socialist stance would deepen social discord and class conflict. In the 2017 presidential election, he received 19.6% of the vote, and in 2022, he secured 21.95%. Bloomberg reported, "Whenever he approached power, markets and investors became uneasy."

With the left-wing coalition expected to take first place in this election, voices suggest that M?lenchon's influence will grow stronger. The coalition's already publicized pledges clearly reflect M?lenchon's emphasis on prioritizing redistribution, including raising the minimum wage, introducing a tax on excess profits, and providing free school meals.

[Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

However, doubts remain about whether M?lenchon can become prime minister. The NFP has not secured an outright majority in parliament, and concerns continue within the left-wing camp about his extreme far-left leanings. Earlier, the Green Party, which is part of the NFP, clearly stated that it would not support M?lenchon as prime minister.

Marine Le Pen, the de facto leader of the far-right National Rally (RN), who ranked first in the first round of voting but fell to third in the runoff, questioned on the same day, "Can M?lenchon become prime minister?" saying, "The situation cannot be maintained." President Macron has also repeatedly expressed concerns about far-left rule as much as far-right rule and has stated that he will not entrust government operations to LFI led by M?lenchon. G?rald Darmanin, Minister of the Interior from the ruling coalition, also openly checked, saying, "Looking at today's election results, no one can claim victory. M?lenchon even less so."

With a 'hung parliament' scenario emerging in which no camp has a majority, government operations including the appointment of the prime minister remain uncertain. Bloomberg reported that despite the NFP not securing a majority, market and investor anxiety over the growing political influence of the 'far-left' M?lenchon remains unabated.

There are also concerns that if the NFP, expected to take first place, pushes ahead with its existing pledges to significantly increase fiscal spending, it could further worsen France's already excessive deficit problem. The NFP has proposed large-scale fiscal spending measures such as raising the minimum wage, abolishing pension reforms, and eliminating tax cuts for the wealthy. The French think tank Montaigne Institute analyzed that implementing these left-wing coalition pledges would require an additional annual expenditure of about 95 billion euros, which is six times that of the ruling coalition and twice that of the RN.

David Roche, chairman of Independent Strategy, pointed out, "Financially, (the left-wing coalition) will be more extreme than the far-right government," adding, "They will withdraw pension reforms and will not comply with the European Union's fiscal deficit rules." Jan von Gerich, chief market analyst at Nordea, said, "The left-wing coalition's economic pledges are much more problematic than those of the right in many respects," and predicted, "France's fiscal outlook will worsen." Ahead of the election, investors cited the scenario of the left-wing coalition securing a majority, rather than the far-right RN, as their greatest concern.