Successful North Korean Missile Test... Reliability Questioned [Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club]

Proof of Success Requires Releasing Target Hit Photos
Setting in Short Inland Target Areas Not Possible

North Korea has claimed to have developed a new tactical ballistic missile equipped with a super-large warhead. However, both inside and outside the military, the credibility of its success is considered low.

On the 1st, the Joint Chiefs of Staff announced that North Korea fired an unidentified ballistic missile eastward. Citizens at the Seoul Station waiting room are watching news related to the North Korean missile launch. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

On the 2nd, the Korean Central News Agency reported, "We succeeded in the test launch of the ‘Hwaseongpo-11da-4.5’ equipped with a 4.5-ton super-large warhead the day before," adding, "This test launch was conducted with a missile equipped with a simulated warhead to confirm flight stability and hit accuracy at a maximum range of 500 km and a minimum range of 90 km."

The problem is that the success of North Korea's test launch cannot be verified. The Joint Chiefs of Staff stated that North Korea fired two ballistic missiles the day before, but one flew only about 120 km, suggesting a possible failure. On the other hand, North Korea claimed that the missile did not explode in midair but reduced its range to strike the target. To prove success, North Korea would need to release photos showing hits on target points near Sariwon and Alseom.

Questioning the 90 km Inland Missile Target Setting

There is also doubt about the claim that a missile not yet deployed in actual combat hit a target 90 km inland. If the target is near Pyongyang, civilian casualties would have to be accepted. Considering this, it is difficult to believe that North Korea intentionally conducted a minimum range test as claimed. On May 1st, the highest leadership, including Chairman Kim Jong-un, gathered in Pyongyang for the fourth day of the Workers' Party Central Committee plenary meeting. Given the circumstances, it would have been difficult to launch a missile toward Pyongyang, making the possibility that the missile went off course more plausible.

The altitude of the test-fired missile also lowers credibility. The Joint Chiefs of Staff stated that the second missile fired by North Korea the day before "did not reach the required altitude if it was an SRBM (short-range ballistic missile)." Solid-fuel ballistic missiles like the KN-23 cannot adjust combustion once ignition starts due to fuel characteristics, so if properly launched, they should at least reach the peak altitude.

Possibility of Failure Before Reaching Missile Peak Altitude

The failure to reach the required altitude suggests that the missile lost radar tracking before reaching its peak altitude, meaning during the ascent phase. This indicates abnormal flight. While theoretically not impossible to launch at an extremely short range of 90 km as North Korea claims, this would require firing at a much higher angle than the normal 30 to 45 degrees, and even then, the missile must reach its peak altitude for normal flight.

North Korea's claim, which has a high possibility of being false, is interpreted as an attempt to avoid embarrassment from recent consecutive military activity failures.

North Korea failed to launch its military reconnaissance satellite No. 2 on May 27. Also, the missile fired on the 26th of last month exploded in midair, but North Korea claimed it was a ‘multiple warhead missile test.’ However, the scene of the missile exploding and shattering into fragments was clearly captured by South Korean military surveillance equipment. If the missile had fallen inland the day before, residents might have been informed, and to quell any resulting dissatisfaction, it is interpreted that North Korea disguised the incident as ‘new weapon development.’