North Korea to Deploy Troops to Russia...? 'Combat Soldiers? Engineers? Workers?' [Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club]

Restoration of De Facto Semi-Military Alliance through North Korea-Russia Treaty
Possibility of North Korean Combat Troop Deployment in Ukraine War

There is growing interest in whether North Korea will send troops to the Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine. Intelligence agencies are also not ruling out the possibility of deploying combat forces as North Korea and Russia restore their quasi-military alliance through a new treaty.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Russian President Vladimir Putin visited North Korea on the 19th and held a summit with Chairman Kim Jong-un, after which they signed the "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty." The treaty stipulates that "if one party is subjected to armed aggression by an individual country or multiple countries and enters a state of war, the other party shall promptly provide military and other assistance by all means at its disposal." This is regarded as a relationship equivalent to a military alliance. The National Intelligence Service also announced on the 22nd that it is closely monitoring North Korea-Russia cooperation trends following the signing of the North-Russia "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty," which contains provisions corresponding to a military alliance.

Likely Deployment Areas Include Kherson and Zaporizhzhia

If North Korea sends troops based on this treaty, the likely deployment areas are Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. There is a possibility that North Korean troops will be deployed to regions that Russia has occupied, annexed, and declared as its own territory. Since Donetsk and Kherson are considered Russian territory under Russian domestic law, North Korea and Russia could argue that it is legitimate for North Korean troops to be deployed there under the new treaty.

North Korea may also send engineering units for reconstruction in the occupied areas. In this case, it could avoid the scrutiny of the international community, including the United Nations Security Council. However, even if engineering units are deployed, combat forces to protect them would inevitably follow.

An Chan-il, director of the World Institute for North Korea Studies, said, "Since the weapon systems used by North Korea and Russia are similar, there is a possibility of direct combat support, but they could also dispatch engineering units or personnel for reconstruction to earn foreign currency."

Possibility of Foreign Currency Earnings through Deployment of Combat Units and Workers

There is also speculation that lumberjacks residing in Russia’s Far East regions such as Vladivostok might participate under the pretext of military training. Although Russia repatriated all North Korean workers within its territory in accordance with the UN sanctions resolution adopted in 2017, some workers in the Far East have been earning foreign currency in small groups since the border was closed the following year.

As of 2013, North Korea is known to have dispatched about 50,000 workers to 16 countries worldwide. It is estimated that the North Korean regime earns between 1.2 billion and 2.3 billion USD (approximately 1.3 trillion to 2.5 trillion KRW) annually through overseas dispatched workers.

There are cases where North Korean soldiers are dispatched instead of workers. The reason for sending soldiers as construction personnel is that it increases foreign currency income without paying separate wages, and it is easier to control them because they follow the military command structure. In fact, the number of North Korean soldiers entering through North Korean construction companies operating in the Middle East, such as Namgang Construction and Cheolhyeon Construction, has been increasing over the past two to three years. Cheonhyeon Construction is known to have continuously increased the number of soldiers dispatched since sending about 70 soldiers to Kuwait in 2010.

Kim Daeyoung, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Strategy, said, "The Ukraine war is a good opportunity to boost North Korea’s economy, similar to the Vietnam War in the past," adding, "In addition to dispatching workers, the deployment of mercenaries using discharged soldiers can also be considered."